本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-2-22 06:33 AM 編輯 - l( C6 c3 B1 T. bTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 R! r0 {5 L2 @6 D 茉莉花革命挑戰「任理軒」 長平4 G9 o% N; K( [* H/ ]
埃及對大多中國人來說都有一種親近感，因為我們從小就被告知，古埃及、古印度、巴比倫和中國是四大文明古國，我們應該為此感到自豪。兩個國家有很多類似的文明遺產﹕埃及有尼羅河，我們有黃河；埃及有金字塔，我們有長城；埃及有木乃伊，我們有兵馬俑……因此，當「埃及」在新浪微博上成為敏感詞而無法搜索時，網民們覺得相當怪異。它提醒人們，在既有的宣傳話語體系中，出現了前所未有的變異。www2.tvboxnow.com" T3 W- Z- l& E! f1 H
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因為偶然，這個變異也有了一個很中國的名字，叫做「茉莉花革命」。當張藝謀團隊代表官方意識形態，在北京奧運會和上海世博會的宣傳片中，都一再引用江南名曲《茉莉花》時，人們看到的是一種傳統而民俗、低調而小資的形象塑造，與過去年代高亢的革命精神大異其趣。當局沒想到，「茉莉花」也會鬧革命。於是，在充分配合官方宣傳需要的百度上，「茉莉花革命」成為敏感詞，「根據相關法律法規和政策，部分搜索結果未予顯示」。能夠顯示的部分，都是否認或污名這場革命的文章。$ J8 ~" ` _& H) z# _$ \
M4 p: n+ _7 r前幾天《人民日報》發表了一篇文章，題為《理性看待當前的社會公正問題》，在承認社會公正成為當下中國熱點問題的同時，呼籲人們不要盲目追求社會公正。文章作者署名為「任理軒」，這是一個老套的遊戲——「不明真相」的群眾會以為它是一個學者嚴肅的學理討論，跟覑它認真反思；而「懂得政治」的人又會知道，這不過是「人」民日報「理」論部的「宣」傳文章，它代表的是中央的旨意，釋放的是當下的政治信號。這篇文章對社會公正的虛與委蛇，是強調它是「歷史的、相對的和具體的」，是「中國特色」的另外一種說辭。以此來應對引發「茉莉花革命」的社會公正問題，不可謂不高明。正如有網友調侃的那樣，假如此文早日出籠，並翻譯給埃及人民看，也許穆巴拉克可以保住政權。 2 }: J+ `6 H: Nwww2.tvboxnow.com3 g- H8 e9 z' @& o$ U# h9 g: C 人民日報理論部宣傳文章 9 V0 g+ A. x vwww2.tvboxnow.com不過細察當下局勢，恰好可以看到，「茉莉花革命」對於中國人的感受，正是「歷史的、相對的和具體的」。在突尼斯事變突如其來，宣傳部門尚未發出禁令之時，新華社發表了一篇特稿，描述這一事變的原因，讀者只需將其中的「突尼斯」換成「中國」，就會發現完全符合中國的現狀﹕總統阿里執政20多年來，實行改革開放，經濟持續增長，但是未能解決經濟結構失衡的矛盾，導致失業率上升。阿里獨裁統治，遏制言論自由，貪污腐敗嚴重。失業大學生上街賣菜，因無照經營被城管沒收攤位，憤而自焚，引發tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. @3 M( F- d# I8 q4 Q+ j( b
群體事件。 & N8 W' Q: r' f1 ~2 A& [* F2 K - L6 O$ k2 [0 r2 N, |; R及至埃及事變，革命群眾佔領開羅的解放廣場十多天時間，軍隊的坦克開上街頭，國家面臨獨裁者下台和軍隊血腥鎮壓的前途選擇，根本不需要任何多餘的聯想，22年前的「六四」事件自然地浮現於人們的腦海。當軍隊拒絕向人民開槍，並逼迫獨裁者下台的時候，整整一代中國人彷彿再一次受到羞辱。在痛苦的記憶中，很多人心中再次燃起了希望。毫無疑問，這將使得今年的「六四」紀念日更具意義，當局也會更加緊張。 6 ` o" K. X5 @1 w$ o+ N) Y公仔箱論壇公仔箱論壇, G; e5 t8 l$ i I" ]7 T 西式民主自由屬自身要求1 C: h* |* ]+ u1 l
埃及人民將「追求民主自由」與「反對西方霸權」一起喊出的時候，中國既有的宣傳話語體系再一次遇到阻塞。「西方干預內政」一向是中國當局拒絕「西方式民主自由」的一個響噹噹的理由。很多中國人驚訝看到，原來「西方式民主自由」也可以是非西方人自身的要求。近年來，西方社會在中國經濟崛起的陰影之下，做出了很多綏靖行為，不僅在人權問題上諸多妥協，甚至還有狼狽為奸的嫌疑。可以想見，長此以往，未來的某一天，中國人未必不會發出「反對西方干預，還我民主自由」的呼喊。 - G# S, j# ~. m) i0 Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbwww2.tvboxnow.com8 |2 H5 D7 `" `/ R
看得出來，宣傳部門對此應對失措，中國媒體語塞數日之後，仍然按照過去的思路，強行將「茉莉花革命」說成是「西方國家的陰謀」。新華社最新的報道中，還強調「在埃及總統穆巴拉克辭職之後，埃及示威活動引起的連鎖反應迅速擴散」，多個國家陷入動亂之中。外交部發言人也不提民主自由，而是希望這些國家盡快恢復「穩定和秩序」。 2 K1 s- h$ J# {* L' K& l) i' UTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 \% B. g$ ~! }" ~$ G+ Z l1 Z
這讓我想起來，多年前我所任職的《南方周末》，刊發過一篇國際時事分析文章，題為《專制獨裁是地區動亂的根源》。這篇文章引起宣傳部門震怒，處罰了該報。如今外交部門動用了「穩定與秩序」，來應對當下洶湧的民主自由要求，是否會再次引發人們對動亂根源的思考呢？歷史進行另外一個循環，還是會借此時機別開生面？作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-2-22 06:34 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-2-22 06:38 AM 編輯 TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ m. ?3 g0 _' Y2 F0 v5 x6 p
. N2 T: y1 U. u- C% g/ K Freedom will not chase away the Arab world's triple crisis 4 A `. \! N) |# A4 V: L公仔箱論壇2 T5 M2 G( G7 g
By Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed " [& w2 ~( z( R+ ^/ q ~8 n3 b9 E+ K 1 m1 }2 d4 K0 X' k2 ]7 `9 lTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. {7 ]; J) ^( j9 I4 y0 |
Economic want and inequality as much as political repression incited the Egyptian and Tunisian revolutions. It is, of course, to be hoped that new governments in these countries, and other Arab leaders, will better address ordinary people’s grievances. But a mere change of government will not make these countries’ economic problems go away.The converging effects of population growth, climate change, and energy depletion are setting the stage for a looming triple crisis. 9 a/ V! q1 d- h3 C: f' r% I6 [The Arab world accounts for 6.3 percent of the world’s population but only 1.4 percent of its renewable fresh water. Twelve of the world’s 15 most water-scarce countries – Algeria, Libya, Tunisia, Jordan,Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain,Israel and Palestine – are in the region, and in eight, available fresh water amounts annually to less than 250 cubic meters per person. Three-quarters of the region’s available fresh water is in just four countries: Iran,Iraq, Syria and Turkey.) |$ [6 M1 a9 n7 n
Water consumption in the region is linked overwhelmingly to industrial agriculture. From 1965 to 1997, population growth drove demand for agricultural development, leading to a doubling of land under irrigation.Demographic expansion in these countries is set to dramatically worsen their predicament.公仔箱論壇2 j }: s1 d2 i ^
Although birth rates are falling, one-third of the overall population is below 15 years old, and large numbers of young women are reaching reproductive age, or soon will be. The United Kingdom’s Defense Ministry has projected that by 2030 the population of the Middle East will increase by 132percent, and that of sub-Saharan Africa by 81 percent, generating an unprecedented “youth bulge.” ; ]) T8 ~$ p2 M1 Q! F% ^3 ~5 m: Swww2.tvboxnow.comThe World Bank’s Water Sector Assessment Report on the Gulf countries, published in 2005, predicts that these demographic pressures will likely cause the availability of fresh water to halve, exacerbating the danger of inter-state conflict. Competition to control water has already played a key role in regional geopolitical tensions, for instance, between Turkey and Syria; Jordan,Israel and the Palestinian Authority; Egypt,Sudan and Ethiopia;and between Saudi Arabia and its neighbors, Qatar,Bahrain and Jordan.. `) p/ J! {( e) O) d
A halving of available water supplies could turn these tensions into open hostilities. Indeed, while economic growth, accompanied by greater urbanization and higher per capita incomes, has translated into greater demand for fresh water, the population movements that have resulted are now exacerbating local ethnic tensions.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 N9 B M+ S, |, F5 D$ D# a3 z
As early as 2015, the average Arab will be forced to survive on less than 500 cubic meters of water per year, a level defined as severe scarcity. Shifts in rainfall patterns will certainly affect crops,particularly rice. A “business-as-usual” model for climate change suggests that global average temperatures could rise by 4 degrees Celsius by mid-century.This would devastate agriculture in the region, with crop yields falling by15-35 percent, depending on the strength of carbon fertilization. ! c# z9 M) J) [The cost of infrastructure capable of responding to the intensifying water crisis could amount to trillions of dollars, and its development would itself be energy-intensive. As a result, new infrastructure would only mitigate the impact of scarcity on richer countries.www2.tvboxnow.com: r+ I4 T" u4 L0 V* Z1 S, W
9 Q) D- ]8 S% r" V6 M jwww2.tvboxnow.com # f) k$ q. u0 N% |9 [www2.tvboxnow.comHydrocarbon energy depletion is set to complicate matters even more. In its World Energy Outlook for 2010, the International Energy Agency argued that conventional oil production worldwide probably peaked in2006, and is now declining. This conclusion fits the latest output data, which shows that world oil production has been undulating but gradually falling since around 2005. Yet the IEA also argued that the shortfall will be made up from greater exploitation of unconventional oil and gas reserves, albeit at far higher prices, owing to the greater environmental and extraction costs. " Y. |3 D; D u2 I" x+ ?The bad news is that the IEA’s optimism about unconventional sources could be misplaced. The six biggest Middle Eastern oil-producing countries officially hold around 740 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. But the British geologist Euan Mearns of Aberdeen University notes that published data put the most likely size of these reserves at only around 350 billion barrels. And the U.K.government’s former chief scientific adviser, David King, found in a study for Energy Policy that official world oil reserves had been overstated by up to one-third – implying that we are on the verge of a major “tipping point” in oil production. 9 I6 j8 K9 M/ ?# a8 \, h, Ttvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAll of this means not only that the era of cheap oil is over, but also that, within the next decade or so, major oil-producing countries will struggle against costly geological constraints. If that proves to be true, then by 2020 – and perhaps as early as 2015 – the contribution of Middle East oil to world energy consumption could become negligible. That would mean a catastrophic loss of state revenues for today’s major Arab oil-producing countries, rendering them highly vulnerable to the compounding consequences of existing water shortages, rapid demographic expansion, climate change, and declining crop yields. h+ p$ Q7 w3 o! e* W5 FTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。This worst-case scenario is not inevitable, but there is only a short window of opportunity for policies to address the situation.Reviving conservation, management and distribution efforts could reduce water consumption and increase efficiency, but these measures need to be combined with radical reforms to speed the transition away from oil dependence to a zero-carbon renewable-energy infrastructure. % r9 g. b+ I, M6 rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbConcerted investments in health, education and citizens’ rights, especially for women, are the key tools for alleviating population growth in the region and diversifying its economies. It is now increasingly clear that Arab governments that fail to implement such measures urgently are unlikely to survive.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 y6 I/ |1 c, v0 a. B
1 h0 m# n# M/ l) U9 ]# t: x4 P公仔箱論壇Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed is executive director of the Institute for Policy Research & Development in London,and the author of “A User’s Guide to the Crisis of Civilization: And How to Save It.” THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in collaboration with Project Syndicate-Europe’s World作者: jjjson 時間: 2011-2-22 02:10 PM
