' O6 X% b; V; O0 j( uwww2.tvboxnow.com美國要削減債務,得設法開源節流,但民主黨拒絕削減福利支出節流,惟恐基層苦上加苦,共和黨則不肯加稅,稱這窒礙投資和創造就業、令經濟雪上加霜。其實,兩黨可透過短期措施令美國暫時避過倒債,問題是,奧巴馬逼兩黨一次過傾掂數,確保明年大選期間不會出現瀕臨倒債的情況。# r% k X9 p' m/ H4 f( b9 U
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奧巴馬罕有地發火,是因為共和黨眾院第二號人物坎托,要求採取以削減支出為基礎的權宜之策、暫時解除危機。坎托向傳媒表示,奧巴馬向他發出「不要逼我攤牌」的警告,總統也揚言準備好將其主張交給選民定斷。觀乎奧巴馬威脅行使總統否決權,部分議員已開始構思如何收拾倒債的爛攤子。有民主黨參議員認為應優先發放社會福利金,多名共和黨議員建議先向軍人支薪。; b2 Y( W% R! Z: \
( w% Q! Z& I: Y& w; u$ Z0 i7 \準備與共和黨對撼 8 S% X; Y- x* f. y: Xwww2.tvboxnow.com英國《每日電訊報》一篇報道,帶出一個發人深省的問題:奧巴馬為何在國債問題上發難?該報指,即使是「公共醫療保險」(public option)未被納入醫改案、關塔那摩監獄關不得、布殊時期的富人減稅優惠獲延長,也未至於令奧巴馬動怒,奧巴馬因美國瀕臨倒債失去一貫的沉着和冷靜,反映他已準備好在此一問題上與共和黨對撼。www2.tvboxnow.com3 q4 D& Y" G# M7 U) n2 P) V
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的確,奧巴馬為促成醫改案,不得不在「公共醫療保險」爭議上向共和黨人讓步,惹來醫改「半吊子」的批評,他在醫改案一役極其量只是慘勝。共和黨陣營受制於茶黨勢力,被迫在國債問題上與民主黨較勁,一旦玩出火,隨時重創美國經濟,誰也擔當不起,奧巴馬此際怒火中燒奉陪到底,共和黨隨時玩火自焚,一鋪「輸凸」。www2.tvboxnow.com% b, _1 q4 M$ \8 Z l; t& q
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8 r3 ? d6 w+ [0 j7 U' u, twww2.tvboxnow.com中日縱對美國有諸般不滿,減持美元資產亦隻會按部就班漸進落實,更不會在這種關鍵時刻大舉拋售,損人而不利己。機構投資者的動態反而足以左右大局,從債王格羅斯(Bill Gross)主理的PIMCO最新部署,大家對「最危險的地方最安全」這句話,應有一番全新體會。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 k+ @1 V; C, i& x* f
1 Y4 \ E! @5 ?www2.tvboxnow.com眾所周知,債王年初高聲張揚,QE2結束後,美債因少了一個大買家,價格大跌孳息急升勢所難免,非但把美債清倉,還一度出手沽空。可是,從其最新投資組合持倉情況可見,美債佔PIMCO資產總值比重,由5月的5%增至6月的8%﹔美國以外發達國政府債券,從10%增至13%﹔現金比重則從35%降至29%。) V4 L. B' b& [
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。; S7 }7 l: O' A) P' j) ~
債王基於什麼原因「唔嫁又嫁」,沽完又買,老畢唔知。然而,從PIMCO 5月份美債持倉佔資產總值5%可見,當時格羅斯已經重投這個市場,一改年初跟美債「劃清界線」的態度。美國政府在5月16日正式觸及14.3萬億美元國債上限,引發當前僵局。有趣的是,PIMCO正好在這個時候重投美債懷抱,並在6月加碼增持。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. w5 d. j7 |; q9 K6 m" a, _, S
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債王到底在博什麼?老畢估計,格羅斯看到的是,美國國債上限若真的無法在8月2日前上調,華府便有必要在千頭萬緒大大小小的開支中定出優次,如認為力保美國信用乃重中之重,以稅收集中應付到期債息開支,仍然綽綽有余。這當然意味為數不少的政府部門得暫停運作,退休人士社保支票或有一段時間沒有著落,惟美國債權人不虞遭拖債,整個美國社會在這個非常時期還可自動「瘦身」節約,而財政部短期內無法發新債冚舊債,令美債供求突然改善……再說,美國若真的違約,受累的豈限於美債,股票商品等風險資產,可以不被質嗎?資金要找避風港,到頭來會不會又是流入……美債? . y# W1 z. l# s* t9 C$ ~3 V公仔箱論壇6 d$ L; ?# C$ r' m
本文見報日,歐盟將公布銀行壓力測試結果。近期,歐豬主權債信貸違約掉期(CDS)大幅抽升,金融機構持有大量歐洲國家債券,備受拖累在所難免。意國最大銀行UniCredit股價上周一再跌停板,五癆七傷,就是明証。www2.tvboxnow.com& ]* ^6 _2 b- X
奧巴馬與共和黨的預算角力 Paul Krugman 《紐約時報》www2.tvboxnow.com, e0 {. W! }% O$ f5 I) a
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關於美國愈來愈有可能違約賴賬的問題,實在沒有多少法子可以正面視之。不過,我必須承認,看著那麼多一直拒絕面對現實的人突然間蘇醒過來,覺察到事件的瘋狂之處,如此鬧劇實在有點幽默味道──一點黑色幽默的味道。公仔箱論壇7 ^0 ~* E- V7 t9 @
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對於共和黨人不可理喻的行為,部分評論家看來非常錯愕。他們問:「共和黨瘋了嗎?」 + @+ T7 ]1 R% j8 [1 ^: Btvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 z, T& X& B5 U d' E; [4 B
這個當然,他們的確瘋了。但這不是突然發生的事,而是數十年日積月累過程的結果。任何人若對於他們如今表現出的極端性及不負責任而感到意外,要麼就是一直沒留心,要麼就是故意視若無睹。* B& r, P" l9 n; Z) p k
) j+ m: |9 K5 N, V7 m: Y% ? 奧巴馬減赤方案非常右傾 ; G3 [; u9 p7 G( N$ Btvb now,tvbnow,bttvb同時,對於那些突然憂心美國其中一個政黨是否腦筋出了問題的人,我想對他們說:那個黨今天弄到如斯田地,你這類人也要負上部分責任。 4 @0 Q" f% g# a, q5 ^* t公仔箱論壇6 Z! O" ?% {' l# [
讓我們先花少許時間,談談共和黨領袖拒絕接納什麼方案。公仔箱論壇0 V% D) {& \! L8 e
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總統奧巴馬清楚表明,他願意接納的減赤協議,絕大部分是削減開支措施,當中包括大刀闊斧削減主要社會福利計劃,甚至連提高享有聯邦醫療保險計劃(Medicare)的年齡限制亦包括其中。這是非比尋常的讓步,正如《紐約時報》的西爾弗(Nate Silver)指出,奧巴馬提出的方案非常右傾,並非一般美國選民所願──若論右傾的程度,相信連一般共和黨選民也有點吃不消。但共和黨卻說不。事實上,他們威脅,若達不到完全一面倒的協議,就會迫美國走上違約之路,制造經濟危機。這種反應完全是意料中事。 0 }5 A7 L. }- `5 Owww2.tvboxnow.com ' F, e; d9 l* a) q首先,現代共和黨基本上不接受由民主黨出掌白宮的合法性──隻要是民主黨人,他們都不接受。克林頓時期是這樣,奧巴馬入主白宮的一刻開始也是這樣。因此,無論總統想做什麼,共和黨人必然反對,即使他們以往曾支持類似的方案。同樣是前麻省州長羅姆尼(Mitt Romney)的醫療計劃,改由出掌白宮的那個人推行,就變成侵害美國自由的暴政。共和黨亦以相同的邏輯,對待奧巴馬提出的債務方案。7 s, D* f/ n) B; Z& B8 A2 ?
g9 p. A% c) R# _$ w7 ^/ d3 C公仔箱論壇換一個演繹方式:若一名共和黨總統幾經艱苦,爭取到像奧巴馬目前在聯邦醫療保險計劃及社會福利計劃所提出的讓步,將被視為保守派的勝利。然而,當這些讓步包括輕微增加收入的附帶條件,以及更重要的是,當它們是由一名民主黨總統提出時,就變成一個以征稅扼殺美國經濟活力的方案,絕對不能接受。除此之外,共和黨已經被巫術經濟學(voodoo economics)所支配。5 e& q' a9 }' g% Q
3 U/ g L5 a& qTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。自前總統列根成為拉弗曲線(Laffer curve,闡釋稅率增加與政府收入關系的理論)的信徒后,供應方面的巫術經濟學(聲稱減稅自會達致收支平衡,以及�或任何形式的加稅將導致經濟崩潰)就成為共和黨內一股重要力量。但以往,耍巫術亦有個限度,列根本身就曾大幅加稅,相當大程度地抵消了最初的減稅作用。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, K' T% _- Q; q/ b9 U) v
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" c6 }% }( p7 t" q* A, O, Q 盲目支持減稅有代價: q3 X/ O! |* t7 x
即使前總統喬治布殊政府也表現克制,沒有夸夸其談減稅的神奇魔法。這某程度上因為他害怕,一旦作出此等聲稱,會令人質疑其政府的嚴肅性。但最近,他們變得肆無忌旦﹔事實上,共和黨不容許任何克制表現。參議院少數黨領袖麥康奈爾(Mitch McConnell)去年斷言,布殊的減稅政策實際上令收入增加(這與事實完全相反),並聲稱「這基本上是所有共和黨人對這議題的看法」。這的確是真的,即使廣被視為2012年總統候選人提名戰中最理智的競逐者羅姆尼,也支持減稅實際上可以減低赤字的觀點。 7 A; P l5 n) \8 x P $ c' ^$ U4 c2 K( {TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。說到這裡,我就要談談那些到了今時今日才正視共和黨瘋狂行為的人,解釋他們為何責無旁貸。www2.tvboxnow.com( k& j3 W) c, i; t- A0 _3 @
6 e& P- g: j9 f+ u, q原因在於:若有任何跡象顯示,盲目支持減稅是要付出代價的﹔若局外人積極譴責那些立場不負責任之輩,那麼,共和黨內一些對盲目支持減稅感到不安的人,也許會擺出較強硬的姿態加以抗衡。但盲目支持減稅卻不用付出代價。布殊糟蹋掉克林頓臨近卸任時積累的財政盈余,但具影響力的專家卻妄稱,當前的債務問題兩黨要負上相同責任。眾議院預算委員會主席瑞安(Paul Ryan)提出所謂的減赤計劃,包括給企業及富裕人士大幅減稅,卻因為「對財政採取負責任態度」而獲獎。 $ I% A* p9 E+ r p( k . e0 g: @" }7 ~& q* m# dTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。由此可見,共和黨沒受到任何壓力,因此可以表現得不負責任,甚至不可理喻﹔一如所料,他們走上極端。若閣下感到意外,這意味著問題某程度也出在你的身上。作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-7-17 04:12 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-7-17 04:16 AM 編輯 公仔箱論壇7 ]0 k7 X; B6 J( U
9 Y2 r7 ^) k' j8 ~$ g Issues Holding Up Debt Ceiling Agreement The New York Times 0 I: e! t- V( @% W- Z. i0 {tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb . o. y2 |9 D# }% y& V. g, m* B9 JTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。www2.tvboxnow.com9 e. _# `% v& m+ [! t1 k4 E
As the deadline to raise the debt ceiling looms, many Republicans are demanding changes in benefit programs as a condition of increasing the debt limit.Congressional Democrats oppose cuts, but President Obama has pushed for a sweeping budget agreement that aims to save $4 trillion over 10 years through a combination of spending cuts and new tax revenues. : ~' B1 a* B+ [% Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ( T/ _( Y7 \3 J( t5 J/ {& O$ _3 M公仔箱論壇MedicareTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" O" ]2 t( j: V* e
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& \9 ]& Y1 z5 z9 E. O9 | Issue Medicare spending is expected to increase to $970 billion in 2021, from $520billion in 2010. Officials have said that the program, which provides healthcare to people 65 and older, is not sustainable in its current form. 7 U# w6 \# t% t, A t' d; k% z# FTVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。What the Democrats say Mr. Obama has offered to slow the growth of Medicare spending, possibly by as much as hundreds of billions of dollars over 12 years and more than $1 trillion in the following decade, by leveraging Medicare’s buying power. But he has not provided details.Many Democrats see Medicare cuts as undermining their political case against the House Republican plan to turn it into a “voucher” program. # I0 k3 S1 }- y, Y2 {* `www2.tvboxnow.comtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb; V0 O8 }/ g E3 j! Z! | What the Republicans say Earlier this year,Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin proposed a plan to give future beneficiaries a fixed amount of money to buy private insurance. On Tuesday, Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia presented 27 proposals that he said would save up to $353 billion over 10 years. They include charging co-payments for laboratory tests and home health care, and increasing charges to high-income beneficiaries.) V8 C( n1 k! Y5 D% j! b% c
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4 z+ V* L* a! W9 S Y0 X5 |www2.tvboxnow.comIssue Federal spending on Medicaid, the nation’s low-income health program financed jointly by the federal government and the states, is expected to increase to$560 billion in 2021, from $273 billion in 2010. The Obama administration injected billions of dollars into the program as the recession deepened two years ago.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 [0 ^1 g8 @& ^, @7 Z' h
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/ k; v7 e8 X" {% d$ \/ c What the Democrats say White House officials have indicated that they could accept savings of $100 billion or more over 10years, much to the dismay of many House Democrats. Critics say the cuts would impair access to care for the poor and shift costs to the states, which are facing a large expansion in Medicaid eligibility and enrollment, scheduled to start in 2014 under the new health care law.公仔箱論壇2 @. x" U2 w; d! X' `1 j
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 m* R' k# |" L) A5 y1 Y What the Republicans say The proposal by Mr.Ryan called for transforming Medicaid to a block grant, with a lump sum of money given to each state, an idea opposed by Democrats. He said his plan would save $771 billion over the next decade. Mr. Cantor on Tuesday proposed $100billion in savings from Medicaid over 10 years, the same amount sought in a White House proposal.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' T( {5 \# \ G0 _+ S" L
www2.tvboxnow.com3 U4 \ d7 G2 A- ?: o) x2 u Social Security公仔箱論壇. ~* X; i# f0 x7 S
. Y+ }+ I! [; BIssue Spending on Social Security, which comprises more than a fifth of the federal budget, is projected to rise to $1.3 trillion in 2021, from $701 billion in2010. In May, the Social Security Administration estimated that under current law the program’s trust fund would be exhausted by 2036.( @4 G5 Y" S n+ O5 i* m
; p/ g$ a) t, u" O- K& \& \" d What the Democrats say Mr. Obama has expressed interest in large savings from the use of a different measure of inflation to reduce the annual cost-of-living adjustment in Social Security benefits. But Congressional Democrats have joined with lobbyists for older Americans to oppose the changes, saying that Social Security is not the cause of the deficit.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& L" T! F* c4 G: W% b6 u
: h0 `# y- j& y }: \" s What the Republicans say Senator Tom Coburn of Oklahoma has said he supports the idea of an alternative measure of inflation,known as the chain-weighted version of the Consumer Price Index, on the ground that it is more accurate. Lobbyists for older Americans criticized this proposal, which could reduce federal spending by more than $110 billion over 10 years. . p' N# V5 W% L; Y0 |; s$ ]公仔箱論壇 ' C2 }5 ?/ a: V* Gwww2.tvboxnow.comTax revenues - W6 j: Y ]8 j( c! g' n8 b2 @1 Ptvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 3 r: |6 ^/ R' A" `8 b% k* Utvb now,tvbnow,bttvbIssue In 2001 and 2003, Congress passed tax cuts proposed by President George W. Bush,which were set to expire at the end of 2010. President Obama reached a deal with Republicans to extend the cuts at all income levels for two years. Whether to let the cuts expire for any income group and how to close corporate loopholes have been points of contention in the negotiations. 8 l. P" Y4 z# v1 g, K3 |公仔箱論壇 ! a! Z( `6 x% y2 x4 d7 t公仔箱論壇What the Democrats say Mr. Obama has called for allowing the Bush tax cuts to expire for top earners, but noted that the change would not take effect before 2013. The White House has also proposed closing loopholes or other tax breaks for owners of corporate jets, oil and gas companies and hedge funds, changes that could raise about $130 billion. $ Y! n, p. Z6 n6 c" Xwww2.tvboxnow.com 6 r& k1 ]/ p& ^3 H% q( @3 I. v0 gtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ; x0 I" U/ u! y5 x; z$ r8 Ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvbWhat the Republicans say Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio had indicated willingness to consider $1 trillion in new revenue, with most of the money to be generated through an overhaul of the tax code. But he backed away from that plan when it drew criticism as a potential tax increase and he has declared any tax increases off the table.作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-7-17 04:17 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-7-17 04:19 AM 編輯 8 {+ L+ T9 A+ F( ]7 H% A; \ & l N! s: ?5 Etvb now,tvbnow,bttvbHouse Republicans Plan Vote on Deficit7 P0 j* _' q: }, Z; l- c- y
# S! W9 B7 l) ewww2.tvboxnow.comBy CARL HULSE and ROBERT PEAR July 15, 2011公仔箱論壇4 [/ H& {& y" ~9 G
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With budget negotiations with the White House stalled, Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio said Friday that the House would vote next week on a three-part plan to cut the deficit, cap federal spending as a share of the economy and amend the Constitution to require a balanced budget.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" M k0 K7 {' {2 e( S; G) ?; R
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The plan, which has a companion in the Senate, would represent the House position in the final stages of the debate as the federal government nears the limit of its borrowing power. While it would not appear to have a chance of passing the Democrat-controlled Senate, and President Obama is opposed, it could provide a legislative avenue to increasing the debt limit as it makes it way through Congress. " K/ a' _" P+ X# N6 B8 i. d公仔箱論壇 # a+ {0 v$ ^' t x* N1 FThe House Republican leader, Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, said the House would move on its own because the president’s deficit-reduction proposals fell far short of what was needed. * L2 H( M/ R/ I . g G& B- u* NIn the budget blueprint passed by the House this year, Mr. Cantor said, “We sought$6.2 trillion in cuts over 10 years.’’ By contrast, he said, in debt negotiations at the White House this week, “the president and Democrats have offered perhaps $1.5 trillion of savings.’’公仔箱論壇- K2 H* ?) l/ s) B
* A: X& \4 Z) z5 I/ _4 y! G公仔箱論壇Mr.Cantor pushed back against Democratic complaints that the Republicans had not offered any concessions, but he said the Republicans would not permit federal spending to continue on its current trajectory.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 r; i. n* c2 p+ o, h0 r$ a
: K! d- I( V2 A# ^' r“We are not going to allow this kind of spending to continue,’’ Mr. Cantor said.“We don’t have the money.’’TVBNOW 含有熱門話題,最新最快電視,軟體,遊戲,電影,動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ U* k2 \" Y) |! j( _$ V- E- X! [
- _( y; v/ F8 f6 k公仔箱論壇Mr.Boehner left the door open to the compromise plan floated by the Senate Republican leader, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who has described his proposal as a last-ditch option. It would call for Congress to vote on whether or not to disapprove a debt limit increase, an approach that could avoid a government default by allowing Republicans to register their disapproval of the increase but still allowing it to pass. 7 Z8 W6 t4 M* L* b, C9 Vtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ) G4 F; w0 D- P3 T' ?2 z6 \% Cwww2.tvboxnow.com“We are far from the time for a last-ditch effort,’’ Mr. Boehner said, signaling that Congress still had many days and perhaps weeks of work to do on the debt.