7 u( e' m8 C$ o: u/ P& t+ ~“中國公司”的“走出去”已經深刻改變了貿易模式。中國的主要目的地已經日漸清晰：澳大利亞、巴西、印尼、越南、墨西哥、南非，甚至美國。中國的國際化有別於（打個比方）日本當年的國際化的地方在於變化的速度和規模。以巴西為例，對華貿易10年前僅佔2%，現在已佔據16%，超過了美國。 " _0 m: H3 A& t7 V6 y4 l, twww2.tvboxnow.com ' `2 Z2 M* u9 f; ]6 x, _TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。這些轉變似乎表明經濟實力正在堅定地東移。到2030年，中國的國內生產總值(GDP)將比美國高出四分之一，中國佔世界貿易的份額可能達到美國的2倍。但以購買力平價計算，中國的人均GDP仍僅為美國的大約五分之一。中國將成為經濟超級大國，但同時仍是發展中國家——可以說是一個不成熟的超級大國。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 r0 i( Q1 x" g: M. j% A% X+ Z
這就把我們帶到下一個話題：相互誤判的風險。隻要美澳軍事協議不構成某種僵硬遏制戰略的第一塊基石，中國就不必感到威脅。正如澳大利亞前總理保羅•基廷(Paul Keating)所說，需要協調運用各種實力，靈活地容納中國。要使這一構想在“太平洋世紀”奏效，人們不應求助於中國的理論家，或是美國的理想主義者，而應學習終極現實主義者：19世紀奧地利外交家克萊門斯•馮•梅特涅(Klemens von Metternich)。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 q' u* A& M1 C
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 Q% ]' \3 s& k
/ b7 Y3 P. Z# }www2.tvboxnow.com《Lionel Barber 英國《金融時報》總編輯》作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-11-22 09:41 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-11-22 09:46 AM 編輯 5 J' V6 F2 E) p公仔箱論壇 " D' m, c& A9 S8 jIn search of a new Metternich for the Pacific century Lionel Barber * i. u @$ c: B. k% O- ^, d8 e$ ]tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 6 h4 h- s0 H4 O. lwww2.tvboxnow.com' H8 v" U. Y& q- r) Y
A doe-eyed prime minister Julia Gillard of Australia this week hosted Barack Obama in the most consequential presidential visit in decades. The two beleaguered liberal leaders staged a 26-hour love-in, the highlight being an agreement to station 2,500 US marines within five years in the Northern Territory, along with increased use of air and naval bases, army training areas and bombing ranges.www2.tvboxnow.com# e9 g" t5 Y* o
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The deal marks the first long-term expansion of America’s military presence in the Pacific since the Vietnam war, and a significant deepening of bilateral ties between the US and Australia, two long-time allies.Local commentators spoke proudly of Australia’s new-found importance in the fast-growing Asia-Pacific region. Cooler heads will wonder what comes next.www2.tvboxnow.com& |0 l. m8 A2 \
However the new tripwire defence in Australia is dressed up, it is aimed squarely at China. Mr Obama made that clear during a speech to the parliament in Canberra. With the “tide of war” in the Middle East now receding, America’s focus would shift firmly to the Asia Pacific, he said: “Let there be no doubt. In the Asia-Pacific in the 21st century, the United States of America is all-in.”www2.tvboxnow.com2 |* d% {. D' \0 r: b
% R2 A. B; P, p9 s* _& ttvb now,tvbnow,bttvbHistorians will look back and ask whether America’s re-engagement in the Pacific in November 2011 marked the moment when tensions with China, the superpower-in-waiting,escalated irreversibly. Throughout the ages, the failure to accommodate rising powers – or rather the failing of rising powers to accommodate the existing state system – has been a source of conflict.( ^# s" y3 p/ Q$ M) n1 M
8 D% `$ K: o8 m+ J0 U1 Htvb now,tvbnow,bttvbGermany’s search for a place in the sun at the end of the 19th century is one example. Resource-hungry Japan’s quest for a new co-prosperity sphere in the 1930s is another. No less relevant (but studiously ignored Down Under this week) is America’s own emergence as a world power at the turn of the 20th century, which led to ”the splendid little war” with the former colonial power of Spain, both in Cuba and the Philippines.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( v/ H( t9 f2 }( J0 h/ H: N9 S
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A century later, China is not so much the elephant in the room, but the elephant in the region. Lately it has become embroiled in numerous territorial disputes with its neighbours. In addition to the historic stand-offs with India and Taiwan, Beijing has bumped up against Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea, an area of lucrative mineral deposits. As China’s power grows, the risks of conflict in a region where nationalist demons have largely remained dormant are manifest. ' r* @/ ]- t3 ^) oTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ' N K' ^" B1 J9 H. l% Atvb now,tvbnow,bttvbMr Obama’s “Pax Americana in the Pacific” is intended to reassure the neighbourhood, including former foes such as Vietnam. The deepening of the 60-year-old mutual defence treaty with Australia also forces a potential enemy to think twice before challenging the status quo. Crucially, however, it does not extend US sovereignty to Australian territory in the manner of the Guam and Okinawa military bases.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 K) w7 J4 D+ Y
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The other strand in US/China foreign policy is economic. This weekend’s east Asia summit in Bali will see Mr Obama seeking to solidify trade ties, starting with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a group of Asian-Pacific countries, which specifically excludes China. Now, it is possible that the grouping could grow and China might be encouraged to join. But that is not the way it looks now. “It’s a posse to get China”, writes Peter Hartcher,respected international editor of the Sydney Morning Herald. # Z- b! y4 }6 b: `. Z( t 0 V, ]; G' m$ m0 q: TTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The TPP overture comes on top of persistent US criticism of China’s artificially low exchange rate. In the upcoming election year, the temperature can only rise. Yet the White House decision to escalate economic and trade tensions with China when markets remain spooked by the European sovereign debt crisis may not be so smart. Those with longer memories recall how the Reagan administration’s spat with Germany over monetary policy triggered the Black Monday stock market crash in October 1987.公仔箱論壇* _+ P" [5 E, Z/ A9 _
% @# c& x3 y$ k2 y" }公仔箱論壇So far, China’s response to Mr Obama’s double power-play has been muted. With a leadership transition due in 2012, Beijing has its own domestic preoccupations. But the Communist party hierarchy is also struggling to manage the economy’s convulsive shift from an investment-led, low-cost manufacturing champion to a more consumer-friendly economy. That shift will be felt well beyond China’s borders. Propelled by waning competitiveness, China’s manufacturers are scouring the world searching for markets, acquiring companies, upgrading technology and building brands.www2.tvboxnow.com. L4 Q0 p. n5 G7 a- r
R1 G. J7 u$ [3 uChina Inc’s outward reach is already altering trade patterns profoundly. The key destinations are already coming into focus: Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Vietnam, Mexico, South Africa and even the US. What distinguishes China’s internationalisation from, say, that of Japan is the speed and scale of the change. In the case of Brazil, Chinese trade was just 2per cent a decade ago but now accounts for 16 per cent, overtaking the US.. m+ `: v, C" x" M' o
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These shifts seemingly spell a decisive shift east in economic power. By 2030, China’s gross domestic product is set to be one quarter higher than America’s. It may have twice America’s share of world trade. Yet China’s GDP per head, at purchasing power parity, is still about a fifth that of the US. It is to become an economic superpower, while still a developing country – a premature superpower,as it were. % b0 p9 c: N+ z* a5 T& |tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ( G* e# j/ q- n* y$ Gtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbHere we come to the risks of mutual miscalculation. As long as the US-Australia military agreement is not the first building block in a rigid containment strategy, China need not feel threatened.As former Australian prime minister Paul Keating says, what is needed is a flexible accommodation of China, through a concert of powers. For that to work in the “Pacific century” one should turn not to a Chinese theoretician nor to an American idealist, but to the ultimate realist:Prince Klemens von Metternich.公仔箱論壇; @* l& O1 Q9 i
2 k8 `& _* s& Jwww2.tvboxnow.comwww2.tvboxnow.com7 p% [5 }$ I8 Y3 d, H2 a) H% P Lionel Barber is the editor of the Financial Times and the article is based on this year’s Lowy lecture in Sydney
