$ o, U! r9 T! v& u7 B公仔箱論壇十九世紀後半葉英國政府對歐洲大陸奉行「光榮孤立」( Splendid Isolation)政策,避免介入歐洲列強的內部紛爭,不跟任何強國締結軍事同盟,盡力保持歐洲的勢力均衡。英國有這樣的選擇倒不是有甚麼宏大的構想或理念,只是歐洲大陸在十九世紀是亂事根源,不是大國之間交戰就是大國欺侮小國,又或是一場又一場的群眾革命,社會動盪。對英國來說,這樣一個地區自然該隔岸觀火,避之則吉。 ' [6 f9 F( g& c* X3 Dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb , x$ A! y1 w+ v4 @www2.tvboxnow.com二○一一年,英國似乎要再來一次「光榮孤立」。歐盟及歐元區因主權債務問題烽煙四起,焦頭爛額,危急存亡之秋德法軸心推動歐盟及歐元區進一步融合,要求修改歐盟條約,加強統一各國的財政紀律,規定財政赤字超越生產總值百分之三的成員要受強制處分,以扭轉部份成員國先使未來錢的習慣,以減低再發生債務或金融危機的機會。對歐元及歐洲經濟一體化若即若離的英國既痛恨德法兩國不事先打招呼就出招,又不願放棄英鎊及倫敦金融城的位置,率先表明不接受德法的新計劃,反對歐盟在貨幣聯盟外再來財政政策規範化,更反對修改目前的條約。在歐盟二十七國中,英國是唯一反對德法建議的大國,令英國在歐盟處於空前孤立的狀態。可是,跟十九世紀不同的是,英國這次孤立沒有甚麼光榮,也沒有甚麼新世界可以成為新的地盤,反而可能成為「歐羅巴的孤兒」,找不到在世界事務的着力點,在全球政經格局中進一步邊緣化。 6 U, ]! r8 Y! }% N$ I2 i . Z# n. h6 e' e$ k; F% N自從九十年代初的英國被迫退出歐洲滙率機制( EMS)後,貨幣一體化已成為英國政壇的禁忌,保守黨固然畏之如蛇蠍,執政十三年的工黨同樣口惠實不至,提出多個幾乎難以符合的條件以逃避加入歐元區的問題。德法意等歐盟國家則義無反顧,十年前同時放棄本身貨幣,組成貨真價實的貨幣聯盟,自此以後,歐盟內部已變相形成內外兩個圈。德法意荷等歐元區國家成為新的歐盟核心,在經濟、貨幣、資金管理等方面的合作越來越強,越來越有默契,領導人之間的個人關係更密切。英國、瑞典、挪威等不加入歐元區的歐盟成員則好像成了次級會員、很多重大的發展、政策都跟她們不相干,她們也失去發言權及影響力。挪威、瑞典之類的北歐小國向來不追求甚麼影響力,只要保持跟歐元區國家的經濟、貿易聯繫已足夠。英國卻是另一回事,直到九十年代中她仍是歐盟內足以制衡德法核心的大國,仍可以團結部份對進一步一體化有保留的國家反對歐盟進一步擴權。但自她拒絕加入歐元區後,英國在歐盟事務的影響力江河日下,德法再有甚麼新動作、新搞作也不會跟英國商量。而在今次英國再opt-out後,她的影響力只會進一步縮減,即使再有甚麼意見也會被當作耳邊風、風凉話。試想想人家為了保住歐元集體勒緊褲頭,交出主權,英國卻逍遙自在,歐元區國家怎麼還會把英國政府的意見當一回事呢? 7 P7 J, y: ?8 c' C. m ~3 D' {+ v' Z+ a5 W& ^: F1 E
失去了在歐盟的影響力,英美特殊關係又大大褪色,英國還有甚麼本錢影響世局呢?作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-12-13 08:15 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-13 08:17 AM 編輯 , L! z# f. L( z, \" gTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 j p, a2 o/ k- E+ Q 卡梅倫的災難性決定 喬納森•鮑威爾 7 o. t4 \4 C6 K: K+ I Ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb / r% g% I3 o+ x! {TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 8 F7 S" Y* j) G& b1955年，在歐洲經濟共同體問世之初，安東尼•艾登(Anthony Eden)領導的保守黨政府沒有經過深思熟慮，沖動地作出了置身其外的災難性決定。在那之后，英國用了多年時間，拼命想加入其中，卻屢遭拒絕，最后直到1972年才被接納。但那個時候已經太晚了，英國已無法對歐洲的格局產生分毫影響。從那以后，我們始終覺得自己在歐洲內是個身份尷尬的成員。 ! s4 @; y% z2 r y1 O4 Utvb now,tvbnow,bttvb4 l$ T, A: G, h# z* A$ e
56年后的今天，又一屆保守黨政府在沒有認真考慮過后果的情況下作出了一個災難性決定：拒不加入一項將在未來幾十年內決定歐洲發展大勢的條約。我們原本指望另外9個非歐元區國家與我們站在同一陣線上，組成一個類似於歐洲自由貿易聯盟(EFTA)的聯盟。但短短數小時內，這個聯盟就土崩瓦解了。與1955年之后的情形一樣，我們今后將不得不花上幾十年時間，力圖加入那項我們從一開始就應該加入的條約。而歐洲也將失去一支強大的經濟自由主義力量，更難抑制住其它許多成員國的集權主義傾向。 + Q1 o+ `/ s9 @) O: p5 ~tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) E% A3 C, N0 S$ L9 @7 n, S
正如我們在托尼•布萊爾(Tony Blair)政府中發現的那樣，這種至關重要的決定可能並不起眼，人們並沒有充分完全意識到它們的重要性。上周五發生的事情，將成為本屆首相任期內的決定性時刻，而戴維•卡梅倫(David Cameron)甚至沒有認識到這樣的時刻已經來臨。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) H3 C2 Z; y; E7 m. f) D6 @
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 k: |) [7 X- u0 D4 @ g' M
我明白歐洲峰會的過程會有多麼坎坷。如果你想避免被排除在決策過程之外，就必須做好准備、施展密謀、建立同盟，還必須隨機應變。作為一個談判者，如果你無法承受亮明底牌的后果，出牌時就千萬別虛張聲勢﹔另外你也決不要沖動行事。但這兩種情況上周五似乎都出現了。說到卡梅倫如何讓自身陷入這樣的境地，除了這兩者，我實在想不出其它的解釋。 / k) _5 q, C8 O6 F% |0 Q公仔箱論壇TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 d( h" q3 D, C/ t; W) d
去參加本次峰會時，他似乎並無拒不加入那項條約的意思。理由他在會前就已經說過了，其中最重要的一點是，如此一來我們在決策過程中就仍可以說得上話。他后來花了兩個小時為他出席的新聞發布會做准備，這顯然表明：他當時並未預料到結果會變成這樣，而他倉促之間不得不為之尋找理由。 4 k1 r. ^+ r6 j! B2 f$ e; W / g( x- O% p/ A. N公仔箱論壇現在，由於這個沖動之舉，他在這一天榮登英國各右翼媒體的頭條位置，但其代價卻是，我們所有人在今后一二十年裡都將抱憾不已。7 @* \" Y: u% N* M* [
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英國如今將被排除在涉及歐洲關鍵經濟政策的所有決策過程之外，這些決策過程將在擴大后的歐元集團中進行。但是，實際情況比這還要糟糕。我們還讓自己置身於無法對涉及英國的其它決策施加影響的境地。英國被排除在外的那個集團，將在歐盟(EU)舉行峰會之前自行開會達成一致立場。屆時，我們就隻能在涉及單一市場的議題上面對既成事實。從實質上說，我們將相當於沒有石油的挪威——既要遵循歐洲的決定，又不能對這些決定施加影響。當然，在某些議題上我們還能行使否決權。可是，現在涉及單一市場的多數議題都通過特定多數表決制(qualified majority voting)決定。如果一個成員國再三動用否決權阻撓決定通過，另外26個成員國能忍耐它多久呢？& v$ j0 h4 _' h3 G
) T( F" j T/ d: y- Q& h7 v% ?6 ctvb now,tvbnow,bttvb我對這種機制在實踐中的運作有過體驗。我曾於20世紀80年代在歐洲安全與合作會議(Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe)中擔任西方的談判代表之一。我們當時曾舉行歐洲經濟共同體分組會議，確定我們的立場。當時歐洲經濟共同體的12個成員國會持一致立場參與北約(NATO)的會議。美國、加拿大和土耳其大喊大叫、威脅恐嚇，卻不能動搖我們的一致立場。 # Q& M/ S- ^9 s! \tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb; j6 V9 |9 u3 d1 c
英國歷屆政府（無論是保守黨政府還是工黨政府）都反對“雙速歐洲”，這是有原因的：我們不希望在自己身處的大洲被排除在權力之外。滑鐵盧戰役后的200年裡，英國為了在歐洲保有領導地位，付出了極大的努力。背離歐洲，就是背叛這段歷史。這件事似乎是，為了滿足某種短期利益（安撫80多名對歐洲持懷疑態度、威脅倒戈的保守黨后座議員），而犧牲了英國人民的長期利益。這些后座議員贏了——他們自己都沒料到會以這種方式勝出。他們希望舉行的公投現在已無必要，因為我們已經放棄了全面參與歐洲。www2.tvboxnow.com1 T$ r/ g$ A0 \7 }+ O
2 U! ]) `" f. S& c6 S8 ?1 ATVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。這個災難性的決定有著極其嚴重的后果，因為我們現在連一個可以依靠的“特殊關系”都沒有了。像丘吉爾(Churchill)和羅斯福(FDR)、撒切爾夫人(Thatcher)和裡根(Reagan)、布萊爾和克林頓(Clinton)時代那樣的強有力的英美關系，如今已不復存在。英國傳統外交政策的兩根支柱，即英歐關系和英美關系，都被我們拋棄了。我不知道離開其中任何一根支柱，英國政府該怎樣讓英國立足於世界。英國政府也不知道。 + H* S$ @" q- L; L% p. bTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。* y9 Q6 y6 }1 C7 {' D7 t4 `+ v8 X i
% O! ?' ~9 B) o公仔箱論壇喬納森•鮑威爾曾任英國外交官和前英國首相托尼•布萊爾的辦公室主任作者: felicity2010 時間: 2011-12-13 08:18 AM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2011-12-13 08:24 AM 編輯 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: N( d+ O9 Q2 z4 Q& j3 R' B
- a. |0 l3 }7 A. O The British “Non” Harold James : d% r6 @2 t: [ X- h gwww2.tvboxnow.com公仔箱論壇' i7 y7 Y4 [% q$ N
& y+ ^' ]; X: j- [At the just-concluded European Union summit, British Prime Minister David Cameron vented decades of accumulated resentment stemming from his country’s relationship with Europe. Europeans were appalled at how the last-minute injection of finicky points about bank regulation could stymie what was supposed to be a breakthrough agreement on the regulation of EU countries’ budgets. Cameron’s supporters in Britain cheered and portrayed him as a new Winston Churchill, standing up to the threat of a vicious continental tyrant.www2.tvboxnow.com" j$ M( ?0 o( p
# [# V, b0 N' D2 L7 qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe United Kingdom’s view of Europe has always been both emotional and ambiguous. A Conservative government wanted to join the European Economic Community in the early 1960’s, but was rejected by French President Charles de Gaulle. The General mocked the British ambition with a rendition of Edith Piaf’s song about an English aristocrat left out on the street, “Ne pleurez pas, Milord.” In the end, Britain came in from the cold, but British leaders always felt that they were not quite welcome in the European fold.! ]# v2 h" x; d |. P/ K X
6 @9 N. t# {2 n+ b8 {$ Q* e( vAt two critical moments in the past, a British “no” had a decisive impact on European monetary developments. In 1978, German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt and French President Valéry Giscard d’Estaing proposed an exchange-rate arrangement – the European Monetary System (EMS) – to restore stable exchange rates in Europe. Initially, the Germans and the French negotiated trilaterally, with the UK, in meetings that were slow, cumbersome, and unproductive.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) u& [& ?$ t0 K+ q: ~5 q
. j8 ~2 q) X; S- t4 n* @tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbIn fact, the talks were sabotaged by British Prime Minister James Callaghan, who started conferring with US President Jimmy Carter about the challenge that the European plan posed to the United States, and how the Anglo-Saxons could respond to the continental threat. As he put it, according to the transcript of one of the phone calls, “with the strength of the German economy, it could be extremely serious, and I don’t know, Jimmy, how to obviate it.” $ w9 f" ]0 {# A " |0 C4 E. f7 itvb now,tvbnow,bttvbCallaghan and Carter were right to worry, but they should have worried about themselves rather than the Europeans. At the time, Britain and the US had much greater problems – more radically unstable government finances and feebler economic growth – which ensured the ineffectiveness of their efforts to impede the European negotiations. Once Britain dropped out of the talks, a bilateral Franco-German deal was easily arranged. The EMS became a device for improving French policy and opening up the French economy.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) }: ?8 c. h! y) X0 X
7 Y/ Z4 }; l# u! j6 m) c8 Ntvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe French position became a model for a new vision of how central banks could operate politically to enhance economic stability. Within a few years, France faced a major challenge when François Mitterrand’s experiment in radical socialist economics collapsed in 1983. When Jacques Delors, Mitterrand’s finance minister and the architect of his U-turn from nationalization and other socialist policies,later became EU Commission President, he was one of the most effective advocates of European monetary union. # ^) ?! n# F- B6 I$ Atvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. A% B4 v" [6 Z7 @3 p1 `
The idea underlying the French strategy of tying the currency to German strength, the franc fort, was that it would limit or constrain domestic policy.Mitterrand had to wrestle with a fractious range of coalition partners. On the left, there were Communists, whom he wanted to marginalize politically, as well as Jacobin socialists who wanted a national path of economic development. Some of the most important industrial leaders also pleaded – in secret “night visits” to the presidential palace – for a national path involving devaluation and a weak currency.公仔箱論壇2 Z1 X' a# e+ M
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The complex European way of constraining domestic opposition never appealed to British politicians. In the early 1990’s, Prime Minister John Major negotiated an opt-out from the Maastricht Treaty’s provisions on monetary union, but was proud that the pound was a stable and – as he saw it – central part of the EMS. In September 1992, a speculative attack on the pound led to Britain’s departure. 3 P& V9 G% G* D" Q公仔箱論壇2 v4 J5 }' I) y8 x; K
The subsequent nine months saw a spectacular collapse of the European momentary order, as speculators worked over one country after another. Spain, Portugal, and the Scandinavian countries followed Italy and the UK out of the EMS, before France itself came under attack – the last of the falling dominos. : o4 A) V1 k" F3 l % ]/ p g/ A9 P C8 X/ L8 |* JTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The crises that wracked Europe from September1992 to July 1993 laid the foundation for the final drive to the establishment of European monetary union. Britain was left on the sidelines, and fiscal discipline was to be imposed externally. The major problem, of course, was that in some cases, discipline was not enforced. , ^2 E) N6 @0 o3 d0 q4 }; A ( t9 R0 E4 H% C( B. h& x4 e2 zAs in 1978 and 1992, British obstructionism today may be a blessing in disguise for the rest of Europe. In particular,it opens the way to a Europe of variable geometry, in which only those countries willing to accept stability criteria will go forward with deeper integration. Institutionally, this may be more complex than an EU-wide treaty amendment, but the result can be tailored and crafted more appropriately to the real situations of rather diverse countries. 0 t. N1 a" m3 ?公仔箱論壇; q# u; p, n0 Q- q2 N$ [ L/ |, {& a. ]
By contrast, for Britain, the legacy of its heroic defiance of Europe has been much bleaker. In both 1978 and 1992, the immediate aftermath was a substantial period of economic and political turmoil. Monetary shocks led to geopolitical irrelevance. : U- a8 R, n' a2 wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 1 v# p0 t, W! _" Z7 mToday, as in 1978, the UK and the US are in a parlous fiscal state, and schadenfreude about European problems is no substitute for embarking on a strenuous path of reform. % x0 I# ?1 G! }2 Nwww2.tvboxnow.comtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb- P) ~2 U V% _2 v$ F1 ~+ r
Cameron, in particular, should not allow comparisons to Churchill go to his head. No one would include James Callaghan and John Major in the ranks of great British leaders. Cameron, too, could one day be remembered as a barely relevant and largely discredited figure. : D/ f1 B" l. m2 J% _" H2 I, B# R公仔箱論壇公仔箱論壇5 G; r' [, I! [+ K5 V) J; l
$ ~" T3 \$ }( @8 n/ R# j4 w( K- ~Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University and Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence.He is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle.作者: aa00 時間: 2011-12-13 09:06 AM
