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標題: [中國內地] 避險資金湧美元人民幣走勢受壓 [打印本頁]

作者: serrurier 時間: 2014-3-7 09:30 PM 標題: 避險資金湧美元人民幣走勢受壓

避險資金湧美元 人民幣走勢受壓
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烏克蘭克里米亞自治共和國親俄政府議會通過「加入俄羅斯」決議，美俄對撼格局急趨白熱化。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' |% c4 B9 F7 ^

烏克蘭仗未開打，東部已經有超過六十七萬人湧往俄羅斯避難。避難情緒同樣籠罩國際金融市場，香港等全球主要股市下挫，美元作為避險貨幣進一步展現強勢，人民幣對美元「十連跌」。中國本來就要打破人民幣只升不跌的投資者心理，又要在日圓等多國貨幣貶值下確保出口競爭力，人民幣匯價短期內更難以回到年初出現的高位。" N% ?" h6 X; e  N7 l' Y2 K6 P

人民幣「有升有息」，不止香港和台灣大批升斗市民「螞蟻搬家」式兌換來增值，國際投資大戶更以此為炒作工具。上月中旬，香港金融管理局總裁陳德霖已經警告，人民幣兌美元不可能永遠只升不跌。到香港銀行進入開展人民幣業務十周年的上星期，人民幣天天在跌，在星期五更創下匯率改革以來最大的單日跌幅，近日跌幅放緩，今年以來人民幣值已經跌逾百分之一點六。公仔箱論壇8 ]8 c% m; f2 S) B. z& W

美國聯邦儲備局去年中宣布部署退市，已經觸發新興市場「走資潮」，「金磚五國」中的巴西、南非和印度被華爾街大行列入「脆弱五國」，甚至有人擔心中國會否被列入「脆弱第六國」，結果卻是俄羅斯失守。今次烏克蘭危機，俄羅斯盧布兌美元跌至歷史低位，今年初以來已經跌了一成。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 T) }: M3 s+ L

中國雖然有影子銀行和地方債務問題等陰影，反而繼續有資金源源流入，原因包括每年逾百分之七的驕人經濟增長，以及人民幣不斷升值的心理預期，如果資金繼續大量湧入，不但令央行收縮銀根控制濫貸事倍功半，而且倍增他日資金湧退的衝擊力度，埋下政經動盪風險。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb/ s; |: E3 k" U( e6 E, R; {

此外，日本國策是讓日圓大幅貶值來擺脫通縮和增加出口。雖然日圓最近與美元一樣享有避險優勢而上升，但是要壓低圓匯的政策未變。日圓去年開始大幅貶值時，韓國等競爭對手已經紛紛調低幣值迎戰，人民幣卻一枝獨秀兌美元迭創新高，對出口的影響漸漸浮現。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' y. H* [( P  i* ^, W8 W) {8 l

剛公布的內地二月份製造業採購經理指數（PMI）是五十點二，創下八個月來新低，而新出口定單指數比一月下跌，顯示海外需求趨緩，至於主要計算中小企業務的匯豐PMI指數已跌破了五十的榮枯線。
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' o' d0 M! e5 h) ^- A' @, Q/ f( ?
現時部分珠三角港商，已經難以承受人民幣升值和工資大幅調升的雙重成本壓力，搬廠去東南亞較落後的地區。今次北京容許人民幣下跌，有助部分港商喘一口氣。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。4 s2 }7 b2 P0 I+ L/ S3 y

此外，透過今次比較大幅度的貶值，北京發出了讓人民幣擴大波幅的訊息，令投資者不再偏重單向炒作人民幣升值，金融機構和進出口商正視對沖幣值風險，把人民幣導向比較健康的市場機制。
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' V( ?3 w: R, ^  t1 X
人民幣不會只升不跌，同樣不會只跌不升，無論大戶或散戶買賣人民幣都要正視風險，而北京為進一步開放人民幣市場創造條件，香港作為最大的人民幣離岸中心，將享有更多商機。

作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-3-7 11:48 PM

本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-3-7 11:51 PM 編輯

Yao Yang: China’s Shadow Menace

BEIJING – The US Federal Reserve’s decision to exit from so-called “quantitative easing” – its massive monthly purchases of long-term assets – is stoking fears of a hard economic landing in China. But China’s strong economic fundamentals mean that policymakers have the space to avoid such an outcome – as long as they bring the country’s shadow banking system under control.www2.tvboxnow.com- n  ^, h) x" D8 K
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As it stands, Chinese consumption and investment growth is expected to remain at roughly last year’s levels.Meanwhile, economic recovery in the advanced economies, especially the UnitedStates and Europe, is reinvigorating external demand, leading analysts to project annual Chinese export growth of more than 10% this year – 3-4percentage points higher than in 2013. This would bring annual GDP growth in2014 to a very healthy 7.5-8%.
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The problem is that China’s financial sector has accumulated considerable risk in recent years, with broad money (M2) having ballooned to ¥110.7trillion ($18 trillion) – almost twice the country’s GDP – at the end of last year.In an attempt to rein in M2, which could indicate that the economy is overleveraged, the central bank tightened conditions for commercial bank lending, so that, for any given increase in M2, less credit is extended.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) V, U4 {; v' L7 m6 r
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But the move failed to contain M2 growth; on the contrary, M2 grew faster last year than in 2012.Worse, restricting commercial banks’ role as financial intermediaries and encouraging the growth of unregulated shadow banking has generated even more risks for China’s economy. Clearly, a new approach is needed – one that is based on a deeper understanding of the dangers inherent in China’s banking system.
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While it is true that surging M2 can reflect excessive leverage, it is not a particularly accurate gauge in China, where commercial banks can easily circumvent high reserve requirements and quantitative controls by moving loans off their balance sheets to wealth-management products – practices that fuel artificial credit expansion that looks like M2 growth. In this sense, it is the Chinese monetary authorities’ reluctance to open up the formal financial sector to domestic private capital, or to liberalize the deposit rate, that is fueling the expansion of shadow banking.: B" d( v$ C0 ]% R( Z! J; z: M* w

With small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) – by far the economy’s most important growth engine – unable to acquire sufficient funding from the formal financial sector, they have been forced to turn to informal channels. As shadow banking has become the primary source of finance for SMEs – which tend to be higher-risk borrowers – the financial risks in China’s economy have grown exponentially.) E& q6 D+ N: F6 h" T

Exacerbating matters, the central bank’s repeated efforts to tighten the money supply raises the cost of capital. Last June, the annualized interbank lending rate surged to more than 10% – a level that it almost matched in December. SME sultimately shoulder these costs, diminishing their ability to contribute to overall economic growth.
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Consider the Internet giant Alibaba, which began using Zhi-fu-bao, the Chinese equivalent of PayPal, to raise money last year. In just a few months, it received ¥400 billion from 85 million small investors. Tencent, China’s largest Internet company, is now using the same strategy to compete with Alibaba, with both companies offering high rates of return – often 6-7% annually – to attract as many investors as possible.# L5 m4 |/ g6 N0 z. ^
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The problem is that most of this investment is in the interbank market, meaning that SMEs ultimately face interest rates of more than 10% – and that does not include the added 3% for SMEs’ loan guarantees. These unsustainable high rates are transmitting major risks to the real economy.
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Nowhere is this more apparent than in the real-estate sector. Liquidity-thirsty developers, unable to acquire financing through the formal banking sector, have been taking out massive loans at extremely high interest rates. But, in many cases, housing demand has not grown as expected, raising the risk of default – the effects of which would be transmitted to the entire financial sector.
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The fact is that China has never been closer to a major financial crisis than it is today.Yet China’s monetary authorities do not seem to understand the scale of the risk – or its root causes.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 j& _* i/ q; v8 j! _# @7 z$ w. a+ l
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The Chinese economy may well need to be deleveraged. But, instead of blindly tightening the credit supply, policymakers must pursue deep financial-sector reform to liberalize the deposit rate,eliminate quantitative controls, and, most important, allow for the establishment of domestic private financial institutions.% K  T" \; B+ x1 j* z# r( H
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Pursuing this agenda is essential to China’s long-term financial and economic health. But doing so presupposes a major shift in Chinese monetary authorities’ mindset. Therein lies the real challenge facing China today.www2.tvboxnow.com- e5 _7 W" q! X
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Yao Yang is Dean of the National School of Development and Director of the China Center for Economic Research at PekingUniversity.
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