! ^2 Q+ K+ J/ D' W+ R- WThe Economist: A rising Russian tide , a( |8 E5 Q- H" `www2.tvboxnow.comTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 c- D' k1 S0 v* P+ u3 @ - P ~6 V" ~2 \7 G& {公仔箱論壇 4 |; O% k; A9 }% J, Z! hTOWN by town, eastern Ukraine is falling under the control of men hostile to the Ukrainian state. On April 14th it was the turn of Gorlivka (also known as Horlivka), a 45-minute drive from the regional capital of Donetsk. A couple of hours earlier a deadline had expired,set by Ukraine's president, Alexander Turchinov, who demanded that men occupying government and police buildings leave them. The previous day Mr Turchinov had warned that the army would be deployed to regain control of the east. / M; d4 n: b9 b公仔箱論壇1 u" i9 V8 s0 P$ I* n
Gorlivka is a mining town and has strategic value as an important railway junction. Other towns where police buildings have been seized in the past few days—including Slaviansk and Kramatorsk—lie on the main highway to Kharkiv, in the north, through which Russian troops based in Belgorod would have to pass in case of a fully-fledged invasion.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( z1 ]- C9 J( Y# K. C
& A' B% [* |# TTo the south this road leads to Mariupol, on the Black Sea coast and close to the Russian border. Here the police building has also fallen into the hands of pro-Russian rebels. To the west of Donetsk,on the main road to Kiev, at Krasnoarmiysk, an attempt to take the police building has so far failed. Whoever controls this has access to arms and the police officers who, willingly or not, have mostly gone over to the side of rebels.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。% \8 F2 G5 X5 S8 p
On the evening of April 12th a film showed a military-style unit seizing the police building in Kramotorsk. Ordinary but organised locals were then left in charge. The taking of the Gorlivka police building was far more chaotic. Groups of thuggish-looking men with baseball bats, stones, helmets and Molotov cocktails tried to gain access but were initially held at bay. Stun grenades were thrown out of the building, in no apparent direction.6 A2 q4 H/ F5 ~3 u; e }7 F
- i% A+ D0 l( T# t# awww2.tvboxnow.comAs the morning wore on, a man with a Russian flag on a fishing rod clambered up the side of the Gorlivka police building,took down the Ukrainian flag from the covered entrance and replaced it. As he began to climb back down he either fell off the building or was pushed. A policeman then climbed out of the window of the building and tore down the Russian flag.A policewoman could be seen throwing a piece of paper out of the window which appeared to be a list of people surrendering. 6 v- `9 {. ]6 r- @. dTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 & H: P, g* F, _. gUgly scenes ensued as the mob armed with truncheons and iron bars pushed into the building and resistance began to crumble. Towards the end only the commander and his deputy were left fending them off. Once they too were overpowered, the deputy was beaten and made to kneel before being allowed into an ambulance, according to an eyewitness. : F6 n. [, j; [tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb( B/ M2 }" I0 ?7 }3 Y& [8 d
When two men appeared on the roof of the building to raise the flag of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic, some began to laugh as it was held aloft triumphantly, but upside down. Inside the building two British journalists were assaulted but escaped unscathed after they had handed over the memory card from their camera.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 n- Y% n& X3 {% |, X
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A man in military uniform then announced from the stairs of the building that the police had switched sides. He demanded that there be no looting or lynching and asked for people to bring tyres and wood to build barricades. People around the building applauded, saying that either the Donetsk Republic should be independent, or part of Russia.1 u @2 m/ [+ Z# ^ o0 u. C
y" o! |0 ~/ b$ kOn the other side of the road from the police station, men were giving orders to other groups of men whose faces were covered with ski masks. Some had helmets and some had body armour. & E- i; W* n u : n/ \% L& H3 U1 c. jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAfter watching the violence, a man called Pavel, who walked to talk at a safe distance from the mob, said he was a member of the Fatherland party of Arseniy Yatseniuk, the prime minister, and YuliaTymoshenko, a presidential candidate. He said he believed the seizure of thebuilding was designed to “provoke conflict” which would then lead to a Russian invasion.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。: {5 G/ }! t3 d2 I, V
. R$ r0 m4 h& C公仔箱論壇Ms Tymoshenko herself was reported as calling on foreign leaders for help. “I ask leaders of the world to provide direct military help to Ukrainian people who have been fighting for their freedom and dying for it. I ask the leaders to act.” Unless Ukraine starts to fight for its own survival, that help seems unlikely to come.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。0 A" z; Z0 `) e, D# S5 e
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 O2 A1 n/ j8 J: |
tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: A4 ]3 C3 ~2 W$ O) S3 }1 ?7 F0 R( p, F 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-4-15 10:46 PM
8 f2 z, n7 {4 a+ o: l公仔箱論壇Bennett Ramberg: The Chernobyl Factor in the Ukraine Crisis , t; p1 l4 B3 J9 m9 i3 ?' hTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 e2 g' M. R+ {0 ]) B
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) k6 B0 m: h6 _4 ?$ [
) w h- r$ z2 o1 R+ l! e/ D/ aTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。LOS ANGELES –Twenty-eight years after its Chernobyl nuclear plant exploded, Ukraine confronts a nuclear specter of a different kind: the possibility that the country’s reactors could become military targets in the event of a Russian invasion. Speaking at the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague in March, Andrii Deshchytsia, Ukraine’s acting foreign minister, cited the “potential threat to many nuclear facilities” should events deteriorate into open warfare. 0 U+ o4 W' d/ K" }! g I公仔箱論壇 % j4 y1 G( U. Q0 P6 G9 R) @Earlier in the month,Ihor Prokopchuk, Ukraine’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, circulated a letter to the organization’s board of governors warning that an invasion could bring a“threat of radiation contamination on the territory of Ukraine and the territory of neighboring states.” In Kyiv, Ukraine’s parliament responded by calling for international monitors to help protect the plants as the cash-strapped government attempts to boost its own efforts. & m" |1 M+ l: ~2 Y公仔箱論壇& f( p5 z( v. t/ W! H
Are Ukraine’s concerns mere hyperbole – a “malicious slander,” as the Kremlin puts it – or should we take them seriously? For Ukraine’s government, the angst is real. Even Ukrainians born after 1986 understand what a Chernobyl-type disaster brought about by battle could look like. ) t6 I. p1 S6 N' d" J3 aTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 5 t$ E% G4 g* o( VTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。History offers little guidance as to whether warring countries would avoid damaging nuclear sites.With the exception of the 1990’s Balkan conflict, wars have not been fought against or within countries with nuclear reactors. In the case of the Balkans,Serbian military jets overflew Slovenia’s Krško nuclear power plant in a threatening gesture early in the conflict, while radical Serbian nationalists called for attacks to release the radioactive contents.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, P, f8 e; {3 B2 \2 o
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Serbia itself later issued a plea to NATO not to bomb its large research reactor in Belgrade. Fortunately, the war ended with both reactors untouched. / H- m' u/ y* `. M4 p- j 4 @1 P6 D" W! a" z' ewww2.tvboxnow.comWhile that case provides some assurance that military and political leaders will think twice about attacking nuclear reactors, the sheer scale of Ukraine’s nuclear enterprise calls for far greater global concern. Today, 15 aging plants provide 40% of Ukraine’s electricity. (Ukraine shut several reactors operating adjacent to the damaged Chernobyl reactor years ago.) Concentrated in four locations, Ukraine’s pressurized water reactors differ from the less stable Chernobyl RBMK design,yet still remain capable of releasing radioactive contents should safeguards fail.www2.tvboxnow.com4 a$ w$ h1 ?8 P: f) p+ w) H8 f
- w; s' }: w1 n, V% B* q7 @公仔箱論壇Given that Russia, too,suffered serious consequences from the Chernobyl accident, it is to be hoped that the Kremlin would recoil at the idea of bombing the plants intentionally.But warfare is rife with accidents and human error, and such an event involving a nuclear plant could cause a meltdown.7 @+ |2 [* X6 B8 ]: g6 o
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A loss of off-site power,for example, could be an issue of serious concern. Although nuclear plants are copious producers of electricity, they also require electrical power from other sources to operate. Without incoming energy, cooling pumps will cease functioning and the flow of water that carries heat away from the reactor core– required even when the reactor is in shutdown mode – will stop. 9 O, ~5 H! t' R+ F ) z9 a1 c0 l3 U! l4 A8 ]TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。To meet that risk,nuclear plants maintain large emergency diesel generators, which can operate for days – until their fuel runs out. The reactor meltdowns at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi power station in 2011 demonstrated what happens when primary and emergency operating power are cut.; h& i4 J/ x4 l2 q0 f
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Such vulnerabilities raise troubling questions in the event of a war. Fighting could disrupt off-site power plants or transmission lines servicing the reactor, and could also prevent diesel fuel from reaching the plant to replenish standby generators. Operators could abandon their posts should violence encroach.: W4 X" X" |; B
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Moreover, combatants could invade nuclear plants and threaten sabotage to release radioactive elements to intimidate their opponents. Others might take refuge there,creating a dangerous standoff. A failure of military command and control or the fog of war could bring plants under bombardment. & _ O! {& ~6 q) \% e3 y0 z% F / }* _4 L! X# M- N公仔箱論壇Serious radiological contamination could result in each of these scenarios. And, though no one stands to gain from a radioactive release, if war breaks out, we must anticipate the unexpected.www2.tvboxnow.com; G7 q4 z/ k/ j/ N3 R8 ~0 O
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In Ukraine, nuclear emissions could exceed both Chernobyl and Fukushima. Wartime conditions would prevent emergency crews from getting to an affected plant to contain radiological releases should reactor containments fail. And, with government services shut down in the midst of fighting, civilians attempting to escape radioactive contamination would not know what to do or where to go to protect themselves." P S7 g# o3 j/ I$ ]. Y8 E
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Such risks might be one reason for Russian President Vladimir Putin to think twice about ordering a military invasion of Ukraine. But, should war come, combatants must do all they can to keep conflict away from the nuclear sites and the off-site power sources feeding them. + [* J. K0 ]/ k1 e公仔箱論壇 ; S- O# N7 @6 gwww2.tvboxnow.comPlant operators should stockpile diesel fuel to keep emergency generators operating. They should perform review and maintenance of generators to ensure that they are set to go.In the event of fighting near reactors, the West should prepare to ferry forces to secure the plants and keep the generators operating; and, in the event of a meltdown, the West should rally both governments to initiate a cease-fire to deal with the disaster. Given the stakes, failure to prepare for the worst is not an option.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& X8 ^- u3 x* u# g2 y" _2 L% w
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Bennett Ramberg, a policy analyst in the US State Department’s Bureau of Politico-Military Affairs under President George H.W. Bush, is the author of Destruction of Nuclear Energy Facilities in War and Nuclear Power Plants as Weapons for the Enemy.作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-4-16 09:37 AM
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