+ j) G6 Q% }- `* w5 N1 p/ ATVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。美國的所謂「高度自治」之下的溫水煮蛙「英國夢」，原來足足煮了過百年才是「夢醒時分」。如此搵笨也可以過骨？真是天真到加零壹，那有本事做世界霸權，對人家說三道四…. H7 z/ X' C" t' d
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至於蘇格蘭那邊呢？理論上來講，相對於英格蘭的「中原」，蘇格蘭是「不毛之地」嘛。貪來幹啥？況且人口才不過520萬，比香港還要少！搞她媽的什麼獨立？況且只佔英國人口不到7%！要搞獨立？問過千千萬萬的英國同胞沒有？ - S' h# G. Q$ \& o# W% A ' g" A7 g* h3 i! M. w1 s4 uTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。不過蘇格蘭就是勝在夠「勇武」，大英帝國的百年帝國光環，其實蘇格蘭的供獻極大。例如對於整個大西洋北部海域和航道的控制、造船和冶金工業的大幅提升，以至人命的輸出（單是第一次世界大戰，蘇格蘭派出戰鬥人員50萬，佔全蘇格蘭成年男性人口的一半！），都令得大英帝國如虎添翼。而到了二十世紀，隨着「北海油田」的開發，蘇格蘭更加成為歐洲的石油首都。 1 P) p# j A6 P3 Wwww2.tvboxnow.com 1 z- ?" q% `+ }. P/ q q公仔箱論壇這塊肥肉，英國可以放口嗎？而蘇格蘭人又不知道嗎？ : K$ q7 A, v5 S% B6 i) ttvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 1 r2 {+ ?, r5 s, [, f! p. X0 o不過又是那一句，歷史發展，不會隨主觀意願而有所改變。按《星期日泰吾士報》的最民調結果顯示：贊成獨立的比例，經已在上星期（2014年9月6日）超越反對獨立的比例。+ h- X9 o/ N2 E. P: x& W2 |/ I4 v
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其實這個結果並無意外，只是「延遲」了一年出現。早在一年之前，當時的民調顯示：趨勢有危險。但「非常幸運地」，獨立派過不了45%的水位。而且直至2014年7月仍是這樣2。那麼到底這幾個月，蘇格關又發生了什麼事？tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 g+ K, Y* z) \2 k# J6 c
8 `5 u+ F& K. T. b( g或者可以反過來問，英國又發生了什麼事？阻止不了「一少撮別有用心的反對派」？tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! \, N/ x) E$ G
; l9 E B1 b0 G3 BTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。原來英國佬真的是「中了計」！ ! X4 o H" e$ A3 {TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb4 h" W' r& ]' j* p* C* y
假如英國按照在早前的「民調」結果，反對派拿不過45%的選票。因此即使不採取「落閘放狗」的措施，也可以「扮大方」讓蘇格蘭人自己去搞一下也不妨。於是在蘇格蘭的地方選舉，也沒有大規模的介入。$ y% u0 f5 [9 \4 e
& A% \, ^# i' g" k3 R. `tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb而在當初蘇格蘭爭取得到進行獨立公投的時候3，英國佬也「設計了安全措施」。例如法案當中規定的公投資格包括了大量「親英」的原素，尤其是「按在蘇格蘭的居留權」來界定，可以公投的選民包括了：+ n9 g9 q- @( C: X1 y% k, @9 l
1. 居住在蘇格蘭的英國公民- d5 ?! a4 D% H- O" G% ?5 r6 l
2. 居住在蘇格蘭的52個英聯邦國家公司 $ x$ F S9 ]5 p# kTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3. 居住在蘇格蘭的歐盟27國公民 * N: m, @$ e6 c, I! x1 v# p4. 居住在蘇格蘭的英國上議院議員www2.tvboxnow.com) P/ f; h0 P' p' d2 b( l4 S
5. 居住在蘇格蘭的英國駐軍 ' z- G, G! U1 E0 pTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。因此反觀梁振英謂「香港沒有國藉的人也可以投票是例外」，這個講法，明顯是「發雞盲」。蘇格蘭就是只按「居留權」來界定投票資格，這個和香港的確是法律相通、一脈相承。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。& q. X2 |% I R' s: ]6 Y( Y: ?
* [5 I, u2 l! ~5 Z' H之不過，所謂「眼大睇過龍」就是這種情況。英國按以上的「居留權」來篩選，獨立派的票源原本也不超過45%。這是2013年底的數據。之不過同時「非常陰毒」的反對派策劃了「降低投票年齡」，由18改為16歲！這就解釋了為何在幾個月之內，「民意」會「過界」。因為民調先前也已指出：傾向獨立的群組，主要集中在「低收入、低學歷、婦女」部份，換句話：弱勢社群。那麼蘇格蘭的年輕人屬於那個群組？ 一眼就應該看得通吧？公仔箱論壇3 ~% F' J j1 z6 V7 s# P
the Scottish Independence Referendum Bill。英國在2013年12月通過
作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-9 02:23 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-9-9 02:29 PM 編輯 + p, u+ b+ o' b$ y " E5 E# @- y% ?) c* x: ~Harold James : Should Scotland Leave the Pound Zone? , W k; ~( A, R: r+ A" y( \9 ~7 Z# Iwww2.tvboxnow.com ) _8 r9 Q% i: W6 ]; I D* n% BTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 R5 B0 K1 I& G" ?! c& I# Q/ D: b9 ~+ i
PRINCETON –As Scotland prepares for this month’s referendum on independence, the United Kingdom – indeed, all of Europe – must brace itself for the impact of a successful bid. Scottish independence would revolutionize the British and European constitutional frameworks, and give a tremendous boost to other European separatist movements, from Catalonia to northern Italy. The economic impact of independence, however, is far less certain.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ Q0 O# {1 F+ Y2 l8 i
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Advocates of independence have long insisted that they are motivated primarily by the distinctiveness of Scottish identity. But Scotland’s history and traditions,while undoubtedly its own, have been shaped by centuries of interaction with England and other parts of the British Isles.www2.tvboxnow.com2 L( n+ m1 d% i0 K v0 O
The more immediate issue for Scots is money. The question of whether an independent Scotland could or should continue to use the British pound has dominated discussions over the last few months of the referendum campaign. The outcome –for Scotland, the UK, and Europe – could vary widely, depending on which path Scotland chooses. ( ]$ W+ {) z- q3 F公仔箱論壇2 N! N; I/ g" p9 O
So far,Scottish nationalists have insisted that an independent Scotland would retain the pound. But, given how much easier it would be to make the case for a separate currency – not to mention the fact that Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has explicitly rejected Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond’s proposed currency union – such declarations amount to an own goal. & H( R) a- l6 i& Q: d' rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb : O S1 s0 m7 TTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The problem with the Scottish nationalists’ vision is a mirror image of the eurozone’s main shortcoming. Given that a single currency cannot function without a common monetary policy, and that economic conditions across the currency union differ,individual members will, at times, be subject to unsuitable policies.( Z- b1 p5 r; c& g, f
! j' v) W1 w. N; SFor example,during the construction boom of the 2000s, Ireland and Spain should have had tighter monetary conditions, higher interest rates, and lower loan/asset ratios. But their eurozone membership meant that government and private-sector borrowers alike benefited from very low interest rates. After the financial crisis erupted, and policymakers began seeking ways to compel banks to revive lending in these and other struggling countries, it became apparent that there were no available tools to employ. % W8 T( X$ t) F8 Y4 Z5 ]# N- a: E2 I) L6 k
Today, the UK faces a similar dilemma. The property boom in the London area demands tighter monetary conditions. But higher rates would wreak economic havoc on the rest of the country, where the recovery remains anemic. * l/ {$ U* m1 H% U( S* j / \. g2 D0 ^+ \4 J& j+ s% ~公仔箱論壇Moreover,like Germany, London maintains a huge current-account surplus (8% of GDP) – a potentially serious problem, given the deflationary effect that Germany’s surplus has had on the rest of the eurozone. Already, the rest of the UK runs an external deficit that is higher than that of any industrialized country. ( y4 H6 }1 i2 f" w+ Y) C7 q* E7 Q( uTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 2 y. f' N- K& ?7 k: {1 KTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The behavior of a currency can be driven by one powerful and preeminent sector of the economy; in the pound’s case, it is the financial sector. Some viewed the pound’s rapid decline in 2007 and 2008 – a 30% depreciation in trade-weighted terms – as a much-needed economic stimulus, given the boost that it implied for export competitiveness. The UK’s independent monetary policy provided it with a level of flexibility that the eurozone economies lacked. 公仔箱論壇. A% s5 f2 V8 E: d; |8 D
d) p# p" o. n* Z, K2 [, b j- lBut the revival of confidence in the financial sector has caused the pound to rebound sharply (by 18%since the end of 2008), eroding the UK’s competitiveness gain. What is good for the City of London is not necessarily good for the rest of the economy. 9 N' [! b: i( Z( uwww2.tvboxnow.com & m) e6 u0 s/ l+ ?0 E( ]There is thus an unmistakable appeal in escaping an economic arrangement that shackles Scotland to London – an appeal that the great Scottish economist Adam Smith would have recognized. Indeed, his most influential work, The Wealth of Nations, was motivated by the belief that the interests of the London merchant community were distorting British commercial policy. 5 y1 K& _8 t1 u- iTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。www2.tvboxnow.com* d, |9 w( M1 z+ d
The alternative to retaining the pound, however, presents its own challenges.According to the Scottish economist Ronald MacDonald, an independent Scotland should have its own currency,which would behave like a petro-currency, owing to the economy’s dependence on North Sea gas and oil. $ L7 z# k+ c+ ]/ e" `2 B# F8 V+ OTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 ) d" z/ s* o) b* QBut replacing one dominant sector with another is probably not good for the rest of the Scottish economy, which would lose competitiveness whenever surging energy prices pushed up the exchange rate. As less competitive industries were driven into loss and insolvency, economic activity would become even more concentrated and specialized.6 K) o% x, X8 z# ?; L9 J
2 p' x1 e& F- e( |TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Placing the burden of adjustment on the exchange rate is not the answer. The small, open economies of Switzerland and Norway – important models for Scotland – struggled with sharp currency appreciation during the global financial crisis. For Switzerland, the solution was to implement a ceiling on the franc’s exchange rate against the euro. 0 Y9 ^+ T. N3 I/ E5 \ t公仔箱論壇 2 R* h9 f7 l/ I Otvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThis should inspire Scotland to pursue association with a larger currency area and a more diversified economy. How about adopting the euro?公仔箱論壇, ~ t" V, X/ K3 G
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) p/ \& v N5 F5 E, f, J" k7 {+ v; M$ Htvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: `3 o: A4 c/ s e8 S" S Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University, Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence, and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm,and Making the European Monetary Union. ( q% \& T2 h* @& m1 @- K公仔箱論壇www2.tvboxnow.com! J. r/ v3 |4 O C; v 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-11 10:42 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-9-11 10:49 PM 編輯 ' L* b8 D4 j; z' W2 m
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- k) E4 ~$ j( Q, _3 ~1 l' q; e* g2 y
The Economist: UK RIP ?公仔箱論壇4 N: S B8 N2 p0 i; i' s) Y8 _
www2.tvboxnow.com: B$ n1 ^1 a% a" z: \ Ditching the union would be a mistake for Scotland and a tragedy for the country it leaves behindTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" L! ~& W, o" Y0 F( v
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SCHOOL CHILDREN once imagined their place in the world, with its complex networks and allegiances, by writing elaborate postal addresses. British youngsters began with their street and town (London or Manchester, Edinburgh or Cardiff),followed by England, Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland; then came the United Kingdom (and after that Europe, the World, the Universe…). They understood that the UK, and all its collective trials and achievements—the industrial revolution, the Empire, victory over the Nazis, the welfare state—were as much a part of their patrimony as the Scottish Highlands or English cricket. They knew, instinctively, that these concentric rings of identity were complementary, not opposed. ; d. Z, O5 o* u" dtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbwww2.tvboxnow.com5 X" A9 Y0 Z6 t# H. A
At least,they used to. After the referendum on Scottish independence on September 18th,one of those layers—the UK—may cease to exist, at least in the form recognisable since the Act of Union three centuries ago. As the vote nears,Scotland’s nationalists have caught up with the unionist No camp in the opinion polls, and even edged ahead (see article). More and more Scots are deciding that the UK, which their soldiers, statesmen,philosophers and businessmen have done so much to build and ornament, does not cradle their Scottishness but smothers it. This great multinational state could be undone in a single day, by a poll in which just 7% of its citizens will participate. That outcome, once unthinkable, would be bad for Scotland and tragic for what remained of the UK.www2.tvboxnow.com, u' o/ j' G3 d5 o8 ~
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0 F& V* w* P3 V( }5 }& x" `+ ftvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe damage a split would do ; E) _0 r, d, X! ztvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ) E: p7 P0 m! J# }& H* ?www2.tvboxnow.comThe rump of Britain would be diminished in every international forum: why should anyone heed a country whose own people shun it? Since Britain broadly stands for free trade and the maintenance of international order, this would be bad for the world. Its status as a nuclear power would be doubtful: the country’s nuclear submarines are based in a Scottish loch and could not be moved quickly. Britain would also be more likely to leave the European Union, since Scots are better disposed to Europe than are the English (and are less likely to vote for the Conservatives, who are promising a Euro-referendum if they win next year’s general election). The prospect of a British exit from the EU would scare investors much more than a possible Scottish exit from Britain (see article).tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb& d7 _9 U# S O% J% l# p/ N3 ?; Z
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The people of Scotland alone will decide the future of Britain, and they are not obliged to worry about what becomes of the state they would leave. But—perhaps not surprisingly, given the endurance and success of the union, imperilled though it is—Scots’ own interests, and the rest of Britain’s, coincide.+ B( z$ @* C- d7 Z. L. ]
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At the heart of the nationalist campaign is the claim that Scotland would be a more prosperous and more equal country if it went solo. It is rich in oil and inherently decent, say the nationalists, but impoverished by a government in Westminster that has also imposed callous policies. They blame successive British governments for almost every ill that has befallen Scotland, from the decline of manufacturing industry to ill-health to the high price of sending parcels in the Highlands. Alex Salmond, Scotland’s nationalist leader, is broad in his recrimination: Labour and the Tories are of a piece, he suggests, in their disregard for Scotland.2 x R8 S! l7 `: `/ K0 t* j) R8 \
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But Scotland’s relative economic decline is the result not of southern neglect but of the shift of manufacturing and shipping to Asia. If Westminster has not reversed all the deleterious effects of globalisation and technology, that is because to do so is impossible. The nationalists know this, which is why, sotto voce, they would continue many of Westminster’s policies. Instead they make much of minor adjustments, such as abolishing the “bedroom tax”, a recent measure designed to nudge people out of too-large social housing. To break up a country over such small, recent annoyances would be nuts.公仔箱論壇$ G4 Y/ M. b4 O. `+ H% G
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The nationalists’ economics are also flawed. Scotland would not, in fact, be richer alone. The taxes that would flow to it from the North Sea would roughly compensate for the extra cost of its lavish state, which would no longer be funded by Westminster (last year spending was some £1,300 per person higher in Scotland than elsewhere in Britain). But oil revenues are erratic. They would have earned Scotland £11.5 billion in 2008-09 but only £5.5 billion in 2012-13.If an independent state were to smooth these fluctuations by setting up an oil fund, it would have less cash to spend now. In any case, the oil is gradually running out. In order to maintain state spending after it is gone, taxes would have to rise. And a crunch might come much sooner. Foreign investors and big businesses that mostly serve English customers could well move south.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: b$ t( D& L# w* J5 M$ O
& q5 L3 b; W9 V xTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Westminster has ruled out a currency union (see article)—correctly,given that the nationalists propose a deficit-widening fiscal splurge and that the assets of Scottish banks are an alarming 12 times the country’s GDP. It might relent, but only if Scotland agrees to such strict oversight that independence ends up meaning little. The nationalists say that kinks over currency and the like could be worked out amicably—that it would not be in Britain’s interests to antagonise its new northern neighbour, particularly since (they hint darkly) Scotland could refuse to take on its share of the national debt. They are far too sanguine. If Scotland goes, the rest of Britain will be furious, both at the Scots and at their own leaders, who will be impelled to drive a hard bargain.公仔箱論壇$ V* ^/ T3 j* `( v8 o
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Mr Salmond is on stronger ground when he argues that if Scotland does not leave Britain it might be dragged out of the EU against its will. This is indeed a danger, but in going independent Scotland would swap the possibility of an EU exit for a certain future as a small, vulnerable country. Its best hope of remaining influential is to stay put, and fight the Eurosceptics.4 ]/ r$ n- Z8 L7 K" e
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' ?4 u7 O$ M3 E+ g2 z4 u, {! s$ LIn the end the referendum will turn not on calculations of taxes and oil revenue, but on identity and power. The idea that Scots can shape their own destiny, both at the referendum and afterwards, is exhilarating. Yet Scotland already controls many of its own affairs (even if Mr Salmond’s Scottish National Party, which runs the devolved government and is driving the Yes campaign, has not done much with its powers so far). Moreover, as Westminster politicians of all stripes have hastily made clear, if Scotland votes No, the devolved administration will soon get so much clout that the practical difference between staying in the union and leaving it will narrow. That would also lead to the distribution of power away from Westminster and to other bits of Britain, which should have happened long ago.: E( B% ]9 e: E/ o- @
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So by staying in, Scots will not just save the union but enhance it, as they have for300 years. For the UK, with all its triumphs and eccentricities, belongs to Scots as much as it does to the English—even if increasing numbers of them seem ready to disown that glorious, hard-earned heritage, and to simplify their identities by stripping out one of those concentric rings. That goes against both the spirit of this fluid century—in which most people have multiple identities, whether of place, ethnicity or religion—and the evidence of the preceding three. For all its tensions and rivalries, and sometimes because of them, the history of the union shows that the Scots, Welsh, English and Northern Irish are stronger, more tolerant and more imaginative together than they would be apart.0 j: S0 }- J0 R0 R
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) D! ]4 N7 o2 j# V8 P7 R' L 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-12 06:57 AM
盧峯: 不一樣的帝國夕陽 3 t. A" I1 n0 u" c$ e- v0 b公仔箱論壇 . o' K" [0 q, p4 ` ; z/ g* |8 v. X3 Q' N LTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。一年多前英國首相卡梅倫同意讓蘇格蘭進行獨立公投時，不少人都認為這是保守黨的緩兵之計，既可把蘇格蘭獨立的爭議推遲，又可作好準備拆解蘇格蘭國民黨（SNP）的攻勢。那個時候大家相信，單是獨立後不能沿用英鎊及要分擔國債已足以嚇退蘇格蘭人，令他們不敢妄動。誰也想不到，要求獨立的激情卻逐步戰勝理性，支持獨立的人不斷增加，從一個月前大幅落後20個百分點到現時叮噹馬頭，個別民調甚至顯示贊成獨立陣營微微領先。假若形勢不變，蘇格蘭脫離英國獨立便不再是天方夜譚，而是即將來臨的事實，又一老大帝國解體，歐洲大陸的版圖也將再次重劃。 # D* C$ h S, x+ t5 ?2 UTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' {" q' M! \# J
帝國解體及歐洲版圖重劃不是甚麼新鮮的事，最大規模的改變是一次大戰以後，幾個古老帝國，如奧匈帝國、鄂圖曼帝國、俄羅斯帝國解體或崩潰，歐洲面目全非，巴爾幹半島、東歐湧現大批新國家，波蘭、捷克斯洛伐克、南斯拉夫……。 $ A* U4 d' A% }# H0 [8 ctvb now,tvbnow,bttvb# ~! B6 j( G2 X# m& N6 o
只是，一次大戰的解體過程不過是個開始，地圖的重劃不過是個序幕，分裂、重組的過程並沒有停止。第二次大戰納粹德國戰敗，歐洲分為兩大陣營，德國一分為二，波蘭的國界向西移，部份原來領土成為前蘇聯的土地，部份原來德國的領土則變成波蘭屬地。不過，最顯眼的還是從波羅的海伸延至阿得里亞海的無形鐵幕。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb% E7 Z9 [2 ~7 v4 X5 ]7 @
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 M. d9 q+ t z1 V M1 J
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