the Scottish Independence Referendum Bill。英國在2013年12月通過
作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-9 02:23 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-9-9 02:29 PM 編輯 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ M# j; H7 X- W# A$ f
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Harold James : Should Scotland Leave the Pound Zone?7 B% o! i, U2 |, I
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PRINCETON –As Scotland prepares for this month’s referendum on independence, the United Kingdom – indeed, all of Europe – must brace itself for the impact of a successful bid. Scottish independence would revolutionize the British and European constitutional frameworks, and give a tremendous boost to other European separatist movements, from Catalonia to northern Italy. The economic impact of independence, however, is far less certain.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb5 Q* Z% o% w4 {0 `" J
2 {% h8 M; E/ Z+ W" k L$ ~公仔箱論壇Advocates of independence have long insisted that they are motivated primarily by the distinctiveness of Scottish identity. But Scotland’s history and traditions,while undoubtedly its own, have been shaped by centuries of interaction with England and other parts of the British Isles. ; E1 _ ?, m7 F. j5 ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThe more immediate issue for Scots is money. The question of whether an independent Scotland could or should continue to use the British pound has dominated discussions over the last few months of the referendum campaign. The outcome –for Scotland, the UK, and Europe – could vary widely, depending on which path Scotland chooses.公仔箱論壇6 Y. ?1 m7 ], D9 }; c9 v3 k# K
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So far,Scottish nationalists have insisted that an independent Scotland would retain the pound. But, given how much easier it would be to make the case for a separate currency – not to mention the fact that Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has explicitly rejected Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond’s proposed currency union – such declarations amount to an own goal.+ O, S0 J& n( D2 m' R) ^5 C
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The problem with the Scottish nationalists’ vision is a mirror image of the eurozone’s main shortcoming. Given that a single currency cannot function without a common monetary policy, and that economic conditions across the currency union differ,individual members will, at times, be subject to unsuitable policies. 9 x4 E- E! W f5 Btvb now,tvbnow,bttvb: L" o8 o3 q, P! c- ^
For example,during the construction boom of the 2000s, Ireland and Spain should have had tighter monetary conditions, higher interest rates, and lower loan/asset ratios. But their eurozone membership meant that government and private-sector borrowers alike benefited from very low interest rates. After the financial crisis erupted, and policymakers began seeking ways to compel banks to revive lending in these and other struggling countries, it became apparent that there were no available tools to employ. - s3 y/ d2 I3 }# f0 R, [( \! Fwww2.tvboxnow.com 5 d) m9 }. a6 k4 p公仔箱論壇Today, the UK faces a similar dilemma. The property boom in the London area demands tighter monetary conditions. But higher rates would wreak economic havoc on the rest of the country, where the recovery remains anemic.( p- p2 |, Q6 p9 F" W' W% D
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Moreover,like Germany, London maintains a huge current-account surplus (8% of GDP) – a potentially serious problem, given the deflationary effect that Germany’s surplus has had on the rest of the eurozone. Already, the rest of the UK runs an external deficit that is higher than that of any industrialized country.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。6 A- \* Y/ g+ D$ x2 L& O3 M; m$ G9 V a
2 y6 o, S, |' w& twww2.tvboxnow.comThe behavior of a currency can be driven by one powerful and preeminent sector of the economy; in the pound’s case, it is the financial sector. Some viewed the pound’s rapid decline in 2007 and 2008 – a 30% depreciation in trade-weighted terms – as a much-needed economic stimulus, given the boost that it implied for export competitiveness. The UK’s independent monetary policy provided it with a level of flexibility that the eurozone economies lacked. 2 T" q, ^7 Q' YTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- n( S# g( {" L" b" k+ ~
But the revival of confidence in the financial sector has caused the pound to rebound sharply (by 18%since the end of 2008), eroding the UK’s competitiveness gain. What is good for the City of London is not necessarily good for the rest of the economy.& U2 I& |. O' T1 @# p( {
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There is thus an unmistakable appeal in escaping an economic arrangement that shackles Scotland to London – an appeal that the great Scottish economist Adam Smith would have recognized. Indeed, his most influential work, The Wealth of Nations, was motivated by the belief that the interests of the London merchant community were distorting British commercial policy. ) {6 p( K- s' p8 C6 ntvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇( n3 d) l; _! c$ d: Y+ X
The alternative to retaining the pound, however, presents its own challenges.According to the Scottish economist Ronald MacDonald, an independent Scotland should have its own currency,which would behave like a petro-currency, owing to the economy’s dependence on North Sea gas and oil. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" V/ d8 O. B5 F/ _
- X |6 N: u, k; ]% S1 a" S! aTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。But replacing one dominant sector with another is probably not good for the rest of the Scottish economy, which would lose competitiveness whenever surging energy prices pushed up the exchange rate. As less competitive industries were driven into loss and insolvency, economic activity would become even more concentrated and specialized. 9 Q/ d7 r, w" w) Qtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb : }' n ?2 z) I- u7 R! y9 v+ ^% `Placing the burden of adjustment on the exchange rate is not the answer. The small, open economies of Switzerland and Norway – important models for Scotland – struggled with sharp currency appreciation during the global financial crisis. For Switzerland, the solution was to implement a ceiling on the franc’s exchange rate against the euro.www2.tvboxnow.com6 @! ~7 f- [5 B. T% Y" l
. G# P9 h$ o9 }: Y6 mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbThis should inspire Scotland to pursue association with a larger currency area and a more diversified economy. How about adopting the euro? ) e( T' P' N" i# Hwww2.tvboxnow.com2 J7 Y& X+ l* z: B
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; E: a) Q' n/ M% m7 u Harold James is Professor of History and International Affairs at Princeton University, Professor of History at the European University Institute, Florence, and a senior fellow at the Center for International Governance Innovation. A specialist on German economic history and on globalization, he is the author of The Creation and Destruction of Value: The Globalization Cycle, Krupp: A History of the Legendary German Firm,and Making the European Monetary Union. * s' \; D' |6 S: Z6 i; h+ otvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 k6 x0 `! Z& n. p 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-11 10:42 PM
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-9-11 10:49 PM 編輯 - r8 [$ {$ @' B8 C( N# Bwww2.tvboxnow.com # @6 ?; S, |# | ETVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。The Economist: UK RIP ?( l E% q- \- m6 ]- i4 O O
, i K# o$ B3 sTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Ditching the union would be a mistake for Scotland and a tragedy for the country it leaves behind 5 ]& c# H0 @5 \! q$ Stvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 6 v+ L. u" G( u- W. ~. {5 u' X" y2 X3 l8 N2 S) c ; \5 k: O, T! f9 u/ \/ J( R4 [ rwww2.tvboxnow.com公仔箱論壇# z8 l* Q, X5 @
SCHOOL CHILDREN once imagined their place in the world, with its complex networks and allegiances, by writing elaborate postal addresses. British youngsters began with their street and town (London or Manchester, Edinburgh or Cardiff),followed by England, Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland; then came the United Kingdom (and after that Europe, the World, the Universe…). They understood that the UK, and all its collective trials and achievements—the industrial revolution, the Empire, victory over the Nazis, the welfare state—were as much a part of their patrimony as the Scottish Highlands or English cricket. They knew, instinctively, that these concentric rings of identity were complementary, not opposed.# G2 ^) V$ z; H4 `
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At least,they used to. After the referendum on Scottish independence on September 18th,one of those layers—the UK—may cease to exist, at least in the form recognisable since the Act of Union three centuries ago. As the vote nears,Scotland’s nationalists have caught up with the unionist No camp in the opinion polls, and even edged ahead (see article). More and more Scots are deciding that the UK, which their soldiers, statesmen,philosophers and businessmen have done so much to build and ornament, does not cradle their Scottishness but smothers it. This great multinational state could be undone in a single day, by a poll in which just 7% of its citizens will participate. That outcome, once unthinkable, would be bad for Scotland and tragic for what remained of the UK. 9 j, s+ E5 O: d! Y- M8 M3 K |$ jTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ E8 s" |5 L8 Z9 {
7 B) [( R4 m4 S" l6 _" n$ \7 X* u公仔箱論壇The damage a split would do0 u1 c- n! g1 {, e
& E* U) D, O7 r# w wThe rump of Britain would be diminished in every international forum: why should anyone heed a country whose own people shun it? Since Britain broadly stands for free trade and the maintenance of international order, this would be bad for the world. Its status as a nuclear power would be doubtful: the country’s nuclear submarines are based in a Scottish loch and could not be moved quickly. Britain would also be more likely to leave the European Union, since Scots are better disposed to Europe than are the English (and are less likely to vote for the Conservatives, who are promising a Euro-referendum if they win next year’s general election). The prospect of a British exit from the EU would scare investors much more than a possible Scottish exit from Britain (see article). 7 n) v- G1 ^0 I5 P( ttvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇' J) t- U5 {+ O
The people of Scotland alone will decide the future of Britain, and they are not obliged to worry about what becomes of the state they would leave. But—perhaps not surprisingly, given the endurance and success of the union, imperilled though it is—Scots’ own interests, and the rest of Britain’s, coincide.; I# M K; S0 |' [9 x
% R0 i8 g0 t8 c$ iAt the heart of the nationalist campaign is the claim that Scotland would be a more prosperous and more equal country if it went solo. It is rich in oil and inherently decent, say the nationalists, but impoverished by a government in Westminster that has also imposed callous policies. They blame successive British governments for almost every ill that has befallen Scotland, from the decline of manufacturing industry to ill-health to the high price of sending parcels in the Highlands. Alex Salmond, Scotland’s nationalist leader, is broad in his recrimination: Labour and the Tories are of a piece, he suggests, in their disregard for Scotland.TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。3 w' v; Z3 J8 g6 r" k T2 @
7 U3 G/ Z- c' u& P4 a/ QBut Scotland’s relative economic decline is the result not of southern neglect but of the shift of manufacturing and shipping to Asia. If Westminster has not reversed all the deleterious effects of globalisation and technology, that is because to do so is impossible. The nationalists know this, which is why, sotto voce, they would continue many of Westminster’s policies. Instead they make much of minor adjustments, such as abolishing the “bedroom tax”, a recent measure designed to nudge people out of too-large social housing. To break up a country over such small, recent annoyances would be nuts. 5 p1 {: ~* z1 N8 r! o& qwww2.tvboxnow.com7 m& T A5 j* e5 r7 D6 r8 \
The nationalists’ economics are also flawed. Scotland would not, in fact, be richer alone. The taxes that would flow to it from the North Sea would roughly compensate for the extra cost of its lavish state, which would no longer be funded by Westminster (last year spending was some £1,300 per person higher in Scotland than elsewhere in Britain). But oil revenues are erratic. They would have earned Scotland £11.5 billion in 2008-09 but only £5.5 billion in 2012-13.If an independent state were to smooth these fluctuations by setting up an oil fund, it would have less cash to spend now. In any case, the oil is gradually running out. In order to maintain state spending after it is gone, taxes would have to rise. And a crunch might come much sooner. Foreign investors and big businesses that mostly serve English customers could well move south.公仔箱論壇8 Y8 e5 U0 Z' D
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Westminster has ruled out a currency union (see article)—correctly,given that the nationalists propose a deficit-widening fiscal splurge and that the assets of Scottish banks are an alarming 12 times the country’s GDP. It might relent, but only if Scotland agrees to such strict oversight that independence ends up meaning little. The nationalists say that kinks over currency and the like could be worked out amicably—that it would not be in Britain’s interests to antagonise its new northern neighbour, particularly since (they hint darkly) Scotland could refuse to take on its share of the national debt. They are far too sanguine. If Scotland goes, the rest of Britain will be furious, both at the Scots and at their own leaders, who will be impelled to drive a hard bargain.公仔箱論壇! O+ U2 ~- r4 C$ y/ Y- E' @
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Mr Salmond is on stronger ground when he argues that if Scotland does not leave Britain it might be dragged out of the EU against its will. This is indeed a danger, but in going independent Scotland would swap the possibility of an EU exit for a certain future as a small, vulnerable country. Its best hope of remaining influential is to stay put, and fight the Eurosceptics. 5 x- i& M: t, ETVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 / l% h+ I2 ~: s2 ~9 V4 f' o公仔箱論壇2 t" M; S' \! ^! M- n
A lot to lose % l0 r4 A+ x6 x5 x7 Q: H' \8 _4 ^2 i' k* l
In the end the referendum will turn not on calculations of taxes and oil revenue, but on identity and power. The idea that Scots can shape their own destiny, both at the referendum and afterwards, is exhilarating. Yet Scotland already controls many of its own affairs (even if Mr Salmond’s Scottish National Party, which runs the devolved government and is driving the Yes campaign, has not done much with its powers so far). Moreover, as Westminster politicians of all stripes have hastily made clear, if Scotland votes No, the devolved administration will soon get so much clout that the practical difference between staying in the union and leaving it will narrow. That would also lead to the distribution of power away from Westminster and to other bits of Britain, which should have happened long ago. , z. O3 _9 r E# i" hwww2.tvboxnow.com公仔箱論壇( v# ^1 ?' p' ]
So by staying in, Scots will not just save the union but enhance it, as they have for300 years. For the UK, with all its triumphs and eccentricities, belongs to Scots as much as it does to the English—even if increasing numbers of them seem ready to disown that glorious, hard-earned heritage, and to simplify their identities by stripping out one of those concentric rings. That goes against both the spirit of this fluid century—in which most people have multiple identities, whether of place, ethnicity or religion—and the evidence of the preceding three. For all its tensions and rivalries, and sometimes because of them, the history of the union shows that the Scots, Welsh, English and Northern Irish are stronger, more tolerant and more imaginative together than they would be apart. - u# d0 N6 b- p( G" w$ rtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb0 W% U) E+ Z6 ?3 `) N7 J1 a 作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-9-12 06:57 AM
盧峯: 不一樣的帝國夕陽 I/ S' z- V% y- A% Y) [& ctvb now,tvbnow,bttvb 9 F4 i& V6 N' c公仔箱論壇公仔箱論壇) b- i! m6 V3 l: l1 q
一年多前英國首相卡梅倫同意讓蘇格蘭進行獨立公投時，不少人都認為這是保守黨的緩兵之計，既可把蘇格蘭獨立的爭議推遲，又可作好準備拆解蘇格蘭國民黨（SNP）的攻勢。那個時候大家相信，單是獨立後不能沿用英鎊及要分擔國債已足以嚇退蘇格蘭人，令他們不敢妄動。誰也想不到，要求獨立的激情卻逐步戰勝理性，支持獨立的人不斷增加，從一個月前大幅落後20個百分點到現時叮噹馬頭，個別民調甚至顯示贊成獨立陣營微微領先。假若形勢不變，蘇格蘭脫離英國獨立便不再是天方夜譚，而是即將來臨的事實，又一老大帝國解體，歐洲大陸的版圖也將再次重劃。9 w* g$ [0 l% S! K- d }
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帝國解體及歐洲版圖重劃不是甚麼新鮮的事，最大規模的改變是一次大戰以後，幾個古老帝國，如奧匈帝國、鄂圖曼帝國、俄羅斯帝國解體或崩潰，歐洲面目全非，巴爾幹半島、東歐湧現大批新國家，波蘭、捷克斯洛伐克、南斯拉夫……。www2.tvboxnow.com* E9 P# w3 c8 ^4 L7 {
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只是，一次大戰的解體過程不過是個開始，地圖的重劃不過是個序幕，分裂、重組的過程並沒有停止。第二次大戰納粹德國戰敗，歐洲分為兩大陣營，德國一分為二，波蘭的國界向西移，部份原來領土成為前蘇聯的土地，部份原來德國的領土則變成波蘭屬地。不過，最顯眼的還是從波羅的海伸延至阿得里亞海的無形鐵幕。 ; R7 }( _; E1 j' l) MTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。- `/ N2 \9 l- A2 X( K' ]0 `
下一次歐洲版圖大變動同樣是帝國瓦解的結果。這一回是紅色帝國：蘇聯。91年蘇共強硬派政變失敗，俄羅斯從後乘勢奪權，以地方包圍中央的方式架空蘇聯中央政府，並把實質權力下放到十五個加盟國，一些消失了的國家如立陶苑等三個波羅的海小國重新成為獨立國家，還有在歷史上沒有留過多少痕迹的國家如白俄羅斯、摩爾多瓦以至近期新聞多多的烏克蘭。除了前蘇聯以外，另一個特殊歷史產物──南斯拉夫到92年也無法維持，像蘇聯那樣，多個加盟共和國紛紛鬧獨立，更釀成血戰連場，死傷無數。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( ]/ G4 m( p @$ n7 @
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想不到的是，歐洲舊帝國分解的過程並未完結，曾是最輝煌的大英帝國也面對民族主義的衝擊，正面臨三百年來最大的憲制危機，可能被迫分解，只剩下英格蘭、威爾斯、北愛爾蘭，失去了蘇格蘭。由於在devolution（權力下放）過程中北愛爾蘭已取得不少自治權，再加上愛爾蘭不少人希望北部可跟南部統一，成為統一的愛爾蘭，未來聯合王國的疆界仍可能有變。 ( W. w8 s, F- W8 `1 G: A9 q 6 j+ U1 @- K w5 S8 ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvb儘管大英帝國免不了分解的命運，疆界可能出現大變，但跟其他老大帝國不同，她在處理民族主義、獨立問題上一直保持和平、理性及文明的態度，願意直接面對問題，讓支持與反對民眾及政黨不斷辯論、商議，再透過政治過程好好處理。97年工黨政府推動devolution，讓蘇格蘭、威爾斯、北愛爾蘭各自擁有部份行政權、立法權，希望藉此讓不同族裔有更大參與及由此建立歸屬感，加強向心力。對不少志切獨立的蘇格蘭人而言，權力下放未能滿足他們的要求，他們仍致力尋求獨立，但英國的做法至少讓國內不同成員種族在獨立問題上保持對話、溝通，不致因爭取或反對獨立而反目成仇，產生更大爭議。即使蘇格蘭真的離英國而去，整個過程也肯定比一戰以來的版圖重劃平和暢順得多，沒有槍炮血淚，有的是正反理據及辯論。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. Q5 T* ?8 R4 |& K
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