0 e7 L4 q, o8 _公仔箱論壇( ?; E, Z I! I8 v% T+ i TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ E0 [: x. a- O7 H' q4 X* m
4 `" F8 z# `* g5 J( ~tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb克里米亞危機事發至今，已不再是本港以至國際媒體頭號關心的焦點，但這不代表事情已經結束，其影響之所及，其實在未來幾個月以至幾年才會逐漸浮現： ! w# B- O0 O# T, e i4 J ; @( G' Z" D0 V9 v U6 q: h7 c( i+ Lwww2.tvboxnow.com投向西方的東歐國家將被俄羅斯切斷其命脈。而在香港，在「滬港通」、向中國南方電網買電等大趨勢下，亦要反思過度被「溶合」可有何後果。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。+ k7 m) h6 X; @: G
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《經濟學人》上月底提到，波羅的海三國 ── 愛沙尼亞、拉脫維亞和立陶宛── 要是沒加入北約，其處境就會如1940年被蘇聯兼併般，而即使沒被兼併，西方經濟制裁俄國對三國代價高昂：對俄貿易佔立陶宛外貿25%；此外，三國都依賴俄國天然氣，若被「斷氣」，拉脫維亞的儲氣設施只夠三國幾個月之用。 : u1 N8 S$ Y; gTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) r# b5 F1 ` E, T( P+ S$ F
另一方面，俄國繼一星期內兩度大幅提高對烏克蘭售氣價格之後（《外交政策》引述烏國總理形容是經濟侵略），總統普京更威脅要停止供氣，而一旦這樣的極端情況發生，輸往歐盟成員國的天然氣供應都會受到影響。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. v. m9 t" d4 Z3 c& p* i/ C
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據《每日電訊報》報道的資料，目前歐盟有三分之一的天然氣，都是購自俄國，當中約一半經由烏克蘭的氣管輸送。 + Y. \$ a Q2 U w+ |" L/ Z' G, i) bTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 k: M4 J4 }& ?
《德國之聲》以及《The Atlantic》則有報道提到，俄羅斯兼併北約使到瑞典和芬蘭都探討要加入北約，瑞典副首相JanBjörklund更公開指出要對防衛政策作原則轉變（doctrinal shift）。瑞、芬兩國一直保持中立，並非北約成員，瑞典更自19世紀初保持中立至今。即使不加入北約，兩國都在加強軍事合作。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 X, s9 P, O, r2 f' A# J
% c+ `- K( P. I公仔箱論壇事件亦在德國引起反思。曾長駐莫斯科的《明鏡》外交編輯Christian Neef在《明鏡》撰文指出，德國過往的確與沙俄帝國有特殊關係，但德國人絕不應將兩國關係浪漫化，俄國永遠不能跟西方相提並論，「俄羅斯不是歐洲（的一分子），永遠都不是，俄羅斯打從史大林破壞其心靈從未經歷過任何啟蒙」。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" K7 C5 u# D2 L P
8 g% P* Z+ e L* {! |* ^5 A從上述提到的情況可見，隨着俄羅斯兼併克里米亞，國際情勢轉變，與俄羅斯在經濟上密不可分的波羅的海三國都首當其衝。制裁對俄羅斯的影響很可能甚微，但三國卻會重感冒。即使是距離稍遠的瑞典、德國，都要重新檢討對俄關係，德國的例子更說明民間都要反思他們的想像。 ! n5 _7 M& [" v! f) }/ p# O; Ltvb now,tvbnow,bttvbwww2.tvboxnow.com* Y- n9 W8 E8 e) X( V
最近幾星期，台灣正在太陽花學運，反對立法院試圖火速通過兩岸的服務貿易協議。而在香港，融合以至「溶合」的措施更是一浪接一浪：近者，有「滬港通」的所謂「互聯互通」；稍早一點點的，則有發電燃料組合的諮詢，政府提出的方向之一，是將從中國輸入的電力提升到香港一半的電力需求。www2.tvboxnow.com- P' ^; j8 K! a; p- H
本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-4-15 10:45 PM 編輯 tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb) h2 y7 c% I- I4 t) t
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Pro-Russian mob targets journalists in Ukraine - BBC News& {: f h$ ?, u8 d
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The Economist: A rising Russian tide " h, ]+ `, t9 s1 V3 T! zwww2.tvboxnow.com / y- i' F7 f1 A. ?" I$ A# K; y+ o4 Q+ [公仔箱論壇. M0 S+ h5 N: {; e5 m; \9 r
) D1 n4 B% h1 ^( u) Z( n+ I* ~TOWN by town, eastern Ukraine is falling under the control of men hostile to the Ukrainian state. On April 14th it was the turn of Gorlivka (also known as Horlivka), a 45-minute drive from the regional capital of Donetsk. A couple of hours earlier a deadline had expired,set by Ukraine's president, Alexander Turchinov, who demanded that men occupying government and police buildings leave them. The previous day Mr Turchinov had warned that the army would be deployed to regain control of the east. 0 W: L2 N/ b+ ?7 r& }% _TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。9 R+ a. g+ ]6 ~, J2 I
Gorlivka is a mining town and has strategic value as an important railway junction. Other towns where police buildings have been seized in the past few days—including Slaviansk and Kramatorsk—lie on the main highway to Kharkiv, in the north, through which Russian troops based in Belgorod would have to pass in case of a fully-fledged invasion.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb' o$ E. v: g6 o: {7 [1 B
, U( C" l; c3 |+ r4 t2 [TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。To the south this road leads to Mariupol, on the Black Sea coast and close to the Russian border. Here the police building has also fallen into the hands of pro-Russian rebels. To the west of Donetsk,on the main road to Kiev, at Krasnoarmiysk, an attempt to take the police building has so far failed. Whoever controls this has access to arms and the police officers who, willingly or not, have mostly gone over to the side of rebels.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" v- g! c1 Q! Z# _7 c' ?. ]6 j
On the evening of April 12th a film showed a military-style unit seizing the police building in Kramotorsk. Ordinary but organised locals were then left in charge. The taking of the Gorlivka police building was far more chaotic. Groups of thuggish-looking men with baseball bats, stones, helmets and Molotov cocktails tried to gain access but were initially held at bay. Stun grenades were thrown out of the building, in no apparent direction. 2 W W4 P, y+ Q! w g& fwww2.tvboxnow.com $ F" X- X' o7 P) d$ D6 Rwww2.tvboxnow.comAs the morning wore on, a man with a Russian flag on a fishing rod clambered up the side of the Gorlivka police building,took down the Ukrainian flag from the covered entrance and replaced it. As he began to climb back down he either fell off the building or was pushed. A policeman then climbed out of the window of the building and tore down the Russian flag.A policewoman could be seen throwing a piece of paper out of the window which appeared to be a list of people surrendering. ; g$ K* U7 M, w( A) U" r& ?; mwww2.tvboxnow.comTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。' j9 `3 q% r+ Q1 k/ _2 g, j |
Ugly scenes ensued as the mob armed with truncheons and iron bars pushed into the building and resistance began to crumble. Towards the end only the commander and his deputy were left fending them off. Once they too were overpowered, the deputy was beaten and made to kneel before being allowed into an ambulance, according to an eyewitness. ( ~5 G, E/ R% x) y9 f" g% t2 Stvb now,tvbnow,bttvbwww2.tvboxnow.com- p+ I2 b! J) W2 i0 _0 Z5 g' _ R
When two men appeared on the roof of the building to raise the flag of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Republic, some began to laugh as it was held aloft triumphantly, but upside down. Inside the building two British journalists were assaulted but escaped unscathed after they had handed over the memory card from their camera.' @% A& v8 d9 c" ?& E* `
9 |4 w+ x! w, U! iwww2.tvboxnow.comA man in military uniform then announced from the stairs of the building that the police had switched sides. He demanded that there be no looting or lynching and asked for people to bring tyres and wood to build barricades. People around the building applauded, saying that either the Donetsk Republic should be independent, or part of Russia. / Z: K' h! o' k3 p7 {) ^公仔箱論壇 ) x3 x% r! } H* y) rOn the other side of the road from the police station, men were giving orders to other groups of men whose faces were covered with ski masks. Some had helmets and some had body armour. ( L7 H# K" W1 D" H( Y7 ]公仔箱論壇tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb2 n4 M% w* ~$ R) L
After watching the violence, a man called Pavel, who walked to talk at a safe distance from the mob, said he was a member of the Fatherland party of Arseniy Yatseniuk, the prime minister, and YuliaTymoshenko, a presidential candidate. He said he believed the seizure of thebuilding was designed to “provoke conflict” which would then lead to a Russian invasion.公仔箱論壇8 P" W; r9 \. U. k3 H$ E9 C" K
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Ms Tymoshenko herself was reported as calling on foreign leaders for help. “I ask leaders of the world to provide direct military help to Ukrainian people who have been fighting for their freedom and dying for it. I ask the leaders to act.” Unless Ukraine starts to fight for its own survival, that help seems unlikely to come.公仔箱論壇, {: N; n) ]7 Q
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本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-4-15 10:52 PM 編輯 ) W9 E; q3 x1 b, g0 Pwww2.tvboxnow.com: T1 e! L6 x$ ?
Bennett Ramberg: The Chernobyl Factor in the Ukraine Crisis* [- p; X6 \' i( k) [* M, n& V
2 Q% ~4 P6 }& n/ n, ?公仔箱論壇 , M' ?& i/ A6 c1 X3 R, I $ S4 `3 j0 t1 I: R {LOS ANGELES –Twenty-eight years after its Chernobyl nuclear plant exploded, Ukraine confronts a nuclear specter of a different kind: the possibility that the country’s reactors could become military targets in the event of a Russian invasion. Speaking at the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague in March, Andrii Deshchytsia, Ukraine’s acting foreign minister, cited the “potential threat to many nuclear facilities” should events deteriorate into open warfare.; M' d9 v* c1 w) N% Y, P, \# H+ @8 C
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Earlier in the month,Ihor Prokopchuk, Ukraine’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, circulated a letter to the organization’s board of governors warning that an invasion could bring a“threat of radiation contamination on the territory of Ukraine and the territory of neighboring states.” In Kyiv, Ukraine’s parliament responded by calling for international monitors to help protect the plants as the cash-strapped government attempts to boost its own efforts. - k/ T/ U$ S. h& Ftvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 O' T/ V" M+ y& r5 M! ^7 R" i. w
Are Ukraine’s concerns mere hyperbole – a “malicious slander,” as the Kremlin puts it – or should we take them seriously? For Ukraine’s government, the angst is real. Even Ukrainians born after 1986 understand what a Chernobyl-type disaster brought about by battle could look like. 2 C, K/ G) N' @* W' |0 Y5 m8 W9 B- nTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 - A9 Y6 C1 y5 C公仔箱論壇History offers little guidance as to whether warring countries would avoid damaging nuclear sites.With the exception of the 1990’s Balkan conflict, wars have not been fought against or within countries with nuclear reactors. In the case of the Balkans,Serbian military jets overflew Slovenia’s Krško nuclear power plant in a threatening gesture early in the conflict, while radical Serbian nationalists called for attacks to release the radioactive contents.$ Y- B" E8 N k, I9 x, Q
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Serbia itself later issued a plea to NATO not to bomb its large research reactor in Belgrade. Fortunately, the war ended with both reactors untouched.www2.tvboxnow.com: v4 l7 N& h2 v0 g& z
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。" A' d& I6 m \' ~: z
While that case provides some assurance that military and political leaders will think twice about attacking nuclear reactors, the sheer scale of Ukraine’s nuclear enterprise calls for far greater global concern. Today, 15 aging plants provide 40% of Ukraine’s electricity. (Ukraine shut several reactors operating adjacent to the damaged Chernobyl reactor years ago.) Concentrated in four locations, Ukraine’s pressurized water reactors differ from the less stable Chernobyl RBMK design,yet still remain capable of releasing radioactive contents should safeguards fail. 7 ~/ E" N. R5 A, x9 i, _# z& u, i" {, btvb now,tvbnow,bttvbTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。( n2 ^7 o6 [/ l/ C8 E
Given that Russia, too,suffered serious consequences from the Chernobyl accident, it is to be hoped that the Kremlin would recoil at the idea of bombing the plants intentionally.But warfare is rife with accidents and human error, and such an event involving a nuclear plant could cause a meltdown., y6 d9 z: C# b/ i# ^! R
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A loss of off-site power,for example, could be an issue of serious concern. Although nuclear plants are copious producers of electricity, they also require electrical power from other sources to operate. Without incoming energy, cooling pumps will cease functioning and the flow of water that carries heat away from the reactor core– required even when the reactor is in shutdown mode – will stop. & a/ d4 Q+ j% s9 N* k ( \% A3 m3 N6 L) n6 s! w6 m; H swww2.tvboxnow.comTo meet that risk,nuclear plants maintain large emergency diesel generators, which can operate for days – until their fuel runs out. The reactor meltdowns at Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi power station in 2011 demonstrated what happens when primary and emergency operating power are cut. 6 L) V% G" I8 P8 f* mtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb & @, u- T9 |3 j ]5 \! ]/ qSuch vulnerabilities raise troubling questions in the event of a war. Fighting could disrupt off-site power plants or transmission lines servicing the reactor, and could also prevent diesel fuel from reaching the plant to replenish standby generators. Operators could abandon their posts should violence encroach. " z. ~* l q7 oTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇/ d. h8 `, V3 @8 v9 Y p
Moreover, combatants could invade nuclear plants and threaten sabotage to release radioactive elements to intimidate their opponents. Others might take refuge there,creating a dangerous standoff. A failure of military command and control or the fog of war could bring plants under bombardment.公仔箱論壇, V8 j1 |/ U4 s: x- P& \
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Serious radiological contamination could result in each of these scenarios. And, though no one stands to gain from a radioactive release, if war breaks out, we must anticipate the unexpected.5 O" k7 B& |6 f0 o2 L& H% f" e
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In Ukraine, nuclear emissions could exceed both Chernobyl and Fukushima. Wartime conditions would prevent emergency crews from getting to an affected plant to contain radiological releases should reactor containments fail. And, with government services shut down in the midst of fighting, civilians attempting to escape radioactive contamination would not know what to do or where to go to protect themselves.www2.tvboxnow.com/ l: |5 Q8 L4 G6 q+ m) y/ T
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Such risks might be one reason for Russian President Vladimir Putin to think twice about ordering a military invasion of Ukraine. But, should war come, combatants must do all they can to keep conflict away from the nuclear sites and the off-site power sources feeding them.公仔箱論壇* g" d! i1 Q* W& K9 q7 c
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Plant operators should stockpile diesel fuel to keep emergency generators operating. They should perform review and maintenance of generators to ensure that they are set to go.In the event of fighting near reactors, the West should prepare to ferry forces to secure the plants and keep the generators operating; and, in the event of a meltdown, the West should rally both governments to initiate a cease-fire to deal with the disaster. Given the stakes, failure to prepare for the worst is not an option.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb, G$ G8 @* D5 i
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Bennett Ramberg, a policy analyst in the US State Department’s Bureau of Politico-Military Affairs under President George H.W. Bush, is the author of Destruction of Nuclear Energy Facilities in War and Nuclear Power Plants as Weapons for the Enemy.作者: felicity2010 時間: 2014-4-16 09:37 AM
TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。$ E0 [: x. a- O7 H' q4 X* m
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