本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-4-7 07:49 AM 編輯
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丘亦生: 中國引爆香港金融危機 ?tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb |" F6 q ?: N1 m) j2 }1 ^
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" K4 W7 V3 E. y0 j0 r9 t公仔箱論壇不知是我哋未瞓醒，還是旁觀者清。當我們還以為香港的銀行體系大樹好遮蔭，被阿爺的人民幣業務帶挈，前景一片秀麗之際，內地及英國傳媒卻竟然不約而同，擔心起我們銀行的穩健，甚至爆發金融危機的可能性，那種山雨欲來的講法直讓人發毛。
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8 L- Y# E4 ~% o% \tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb唔講得笑，睇完標題已經嚇一驚。內地財經雜誌《新世紀》新一期發表題為《香港萬億美元危機》的報導，而英國每日電訊報則於周六刊出題為《Financial typhoon warning for Hong Kong（香港響起金融颱風警號）》的評論文章。
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其實兩篇的論調有點相似，都是針對內地經濟的不明朗、企業壞帳飆升、人民幣不再單邊升值引發大量套利交易平倉及資金撤走，以及內地樓市調整等一籃子因素，可能連累近年大舉貸款予內地相關機構的香港銀行。按金管局早前披露的數字，去年底內地相關貸款已佔本港銀行總資產近兩成，或3.6萬億元，當中有多少會出現問題？就算是1%，也是360億元的天文數字。
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《新世紀》的報導側重於熱錢，文章引述大和證券推算美國實施量化寬鬆以來，有1萬億美元熱錢透過香港進入內地，當中不少是衝著人民幣升值而來，估計單單是透過虛報中港出口來暗渡陳倉，把人民幣匯入境投資各類理財產品的金額，累計便高達3100億美元。公仔箱論壇* `4 y; a/ v I% D* w' I
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如果內地經濟放緩，又或者人民幣不復之前強勢，大量熱錢相繼撤出內地，港銀之前袋袋平安的「貿易融資」便可能暴縮，亦可能出現資產負債錯配的情況。報導說，為了監督銀行如何審批內地相關貸款，金管局已特別設立了一個專責部門來昅實。公仔箱論壇- S* G2 S! o/ D( r9 r- N x+ `6 S
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問題是，虛報出口這種灰色手段，並無正式統計，其具體衝擊不易評估。早前《彭博社》的報導，則指今年以來人民幣貶值近3%，估計已令炒人民幣期權的美資行客戶輸掉20億美元，投資了人民幣衍生工具的中資公司，更加要輸35億美元，這種程度的中伏，可能真會嚇怕了一部份資金。' S- N; z! B0 ?2 R) w$ H2 [
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《每日電訊報》的評論文章，則聚焦於港銀的內地貸款急增風險，擔心內地的違約潮若蔓延，會波及香港銀行。穆迪上月已率先對4家港銀發出負面評級展望，擔心其內地貸款增長過快。例如剛賣盤的永隆，過去4年貸款予內地的比例，便由8%升急升至去年中的40%。
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為何一份英國報章會關注香港銀行體系，原來是英國央行也開始提防，內地的問題會透過匯豐（0005）及渣打（2888）這些在當地也舉足輕重的銀行，倒過來影響英國的金融業。去年英國央行要求兩家銀行進行壓力測試時，已叫他們重點測試中國及香港的衝擊。以匯豐為例，英國央行要求該行模擬內地樓市跌5成、港股及港樓市跌5成下，銀行的財政狀況會如何惡化。tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! E0 m+ |! N+ m$ J) w
( f* K% b8 p6 ~! o" z j2 W. q無論以上不利因素，有幾殺到埋身，但香港銀行不斷在中國業務上押重注，肯定令風險變得更集中，一次意外，泥足深陷，要避都避唔切。/ Z' Z' T$ ~% Y' c4 W# H
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3 i& Z- T7 }) V2 }tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbFinancial typhoon warning for Hong Kong
4 X; C* ^ P$ N% B5 MBy Harry Wilsontvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 Z; \3 d9 i7 y( d( k1 k1 s
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The city is showing worrying signs of being at the centre of the next financial crisis
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Offshore subsidiaries of China’s largest state-controlled banks are using Hong Kong as abase for sourcing foreign currency funding to pump back into the domestic economy
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The restaurants are fully booked, the shops are packed, the financial markets are booming. For Hong Kong things have, on the face of it, never been so good.
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“One country, two systems” has proved to be a good deal for the former British island colony that today has become a financial centre, not just to rival its old ruler but to eclipse it.
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Work in London as a middle-ranking investment banker and you can hope to earn about £286,000 a year in salary and bonuses. Do the same job in Hong Kong and you can earn an extra £30,000.( J$ Q9 H o* U# W. m0 u/ F
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Take into account the city state’s low personal tax rate and you are looking at a considerably more lucrative career.An attractive prospect as long as you are not too bothered by the dire airpollution.: y; X8 u4 v# K( V: i( K& f! O
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4 Y2 M( @7 n% B- m0 e3 ^* u公仔箱論壇“It has shops to rival New York and offshore banking services to match Geneva,” says one Hong Kong-based investment banker who long ago left London for Asia.公仔箱論壇! `: X& M- W' Q5 V" ?. s
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Last year, a record 54 million tourists, most of them from the Chinese mainland, thronged through the island’s increasingly jammed shopping malls, while millionaires and billionaires from the People’s Republic bought up luxury properties, feeding a real estate boom to match any seen in the West. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ Q4 Q6 M0 C" T9 z
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The Chinese influx, while profitable, has not been to the taste of all the territory’s citizens, who blame “the locusts” for pushing up home prices and forcing them out of central districts. 0 r, N; K( w5 w1 [
: ~, n, z2 n3 e- eAt the same time, Hong Kong has the continued to hold the dubious distinction of topping The Economist’s “crony-capitalism”index, with billionaires estimated to have squirrelled away fortunes equivalent to nearly 60pc of GDP, more than treble the level in second-placed Russia. 0 R4 Y0 e! G% P1 j& `) L6 H7 l
The boom, therefore, is not one that has been universally applauded or universally shared, adding to the sense of an unbalanced economy.
6 A0 f8 I& e1 NTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。With every boom there is also the ever-present spectre of bust. Hong Kong knows a thing or two about this and its modern financial history has been marked by a series of spectacular bubbles followed by huge crashes.
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7 v9 Z) a$ W( o& |6 J3 XDuncan Innes-Ker, an Asia analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, has followed Hong Kong’s ups and downs for several years and says the present boom is the natural consequence of the West’s and particularly the American response to the crisis. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 `& f. h% }: ]+ ]9 ]3 I# p. ]
: `3 ~. l3 x8 U+ j1 ?+ y1 e" Y5 v3 {TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。“When you get low US interest rates you get a property bubble in Hong Kong. To my mind, this looks like the latest in a cycle of boom and busts,” says Innes-Ker. + y" b$ [' W, c% U
( @; J$ ~: X; t9 ]: C3 [0 _/ i公仔箱論壇However, Asianomics, a Hong Kong-based research firm, thinks the current upcycle is masking the tell-tale signs of a sharp and possibly unprecedented correction. , v* Q, ?! V, P
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“Hong Kong is in the path of the typhoon developing on the mainland,” says Sharmila Whelan, an analyst at Asianomics.
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“A nasty downturn in China and a sudden sharp correction in the Hong Kong property market would severely buffet the territory’s economy. China’s problems have become insurmountable and the likelihood that 2014 will prove the year of reckoning is growing,” says Whelan.
D, [& `9 k1 K+ I ]She and her colleagues last month published a comprehensive analysis of Hong Kong’s current position and concluded that a bust was already apparent and that its cause was the same as that of the boom:China.
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+ ~- W* R, d3 o8 ~7 \: uwww2.tvboxnow.comTo see why, you have to look closely at the changes that have taken place in the financial relationship between Hong Kong and China since the crash of 2008.
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8 I4 U6 r. ]' Gwww2.tvboxnow.comBefore the crisis, China had never represented more than 10pc of the total external claims of Hong Kong-based financial institutions, but with the implosion of the West, the island’s exposure to the mainland has rocketed and, as of late last year, stood at 49pcof claims. 公仔箱論壇- m7 O' n8 G: j
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Much of the rise has come from the rapid growth of the offshore subsidiaries of China’s largest state-controlled banks,which have increasingly used Hong Kong as a base for sourcing foreign currency funding to pump back into the domestic economy. 公仔箱論壇. F* }$ l6 ?5 s; Y8 X
3 Q' M8 O0 X# JTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。This has been accelerated by the People’s Bank of China’s clampdown on renminbi lending, which has led Chinese banks and companies to borrow money cheaply offshore, mainly in dollars, to invest at home at higher rates of interest. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb3 R0 G& P' }+ i' V3 C8 R8 K
9 L# E5 Z9 Q& |; G2 ^Moody’s last month issued a “negative”outlook on the Hong Kong-based operations of three out of five of the larger banks, including those of China Construction Bank and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), over the rapid growth in their loan books. & F0 J7 V- x. @' @9 J1 V9 Y
* ~9 V5 X% |. t+ u7 A9 UOne of the most extreme examples is Wing Lung Bank, which is currently being taken over by Singapore-based Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation, which has almost doubled its lending in the last four years as it ramped up its mainland loan book from 8pc of total loans to 40pc by the middle of 2013.
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This has helped feed the growth in China over the last five years of the largest and most rapid expansion in credit in history that has transformed the People’s Republic of China into the world’s second largest economy on the back of a construction and manufacturing boom without precedent.
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$ l: S: p/ R/ F2 V& W“This is a PRC town,” says one senior Hong Kong-based banker. “A decade ago if you heard someone speaking Mandarin you assumed they had accidentally walked over the border, today you can’t get a good job unless you speak it.” / v2 B) Q2 A: H! u/ v& W }5 v* D
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Andrew Scott, professor of economics at London Business School, says the danger to Hong Kong from its exposure to a Chinese crash is clear. “Hong Kong banks are definitely exposed to the mainland through significant lending and are very dependent on the People’s Republic of China central bank for liquidity in renminbi. 9 C) {6 ^$ [! w$ m( w
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“So a real estate crisis in the PRC would have a major impact on Hong Kong bank balance sheets and GDP. Of course, if a PRC crisis meant less Western money flowing into China that would also affect Hong Kong,” he says.
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The problems of Hong Kong may seem a long way from the UK, but with two major London-listed and regulated banks still big players in its financial system, HSBC and Standard Chartered, what is happening in the territory is of close interest to the British authorities. 6 `4 i6 M' s9 j) \/ h, C
: p# { A$ J+ p u! j4 _tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbLast year’s Bank of England stress tests on HSBC and Standard Chartered focused predominately on the impact of a Chinese and Hong Kong financial crisis to the exclusion of almost all other risks.
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In the case of HSBC, the lender was told to model for a halving in Hong Kong property and stock market values, as well as a 50pc reduction in mainland property.
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H! U0 I1 C! r& ^' uTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。Even HSBC’s house broker, Credit Suisse,appears alarmed at the storm clouds gathering over China and recently cut its recommendation on the bank’s shares from “buy” to “sell”, warning about the potential unwind of the dollar-renminbi “carry” trade.
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Although neither HSBC nor Standard Chartered are likely to have lent much directly to mainland Chinese businesses the issue is more a question of whether they have lent to financial institutions that have lent to businesses that could be hit hard in the event of a severe downturn. 公仔箱論壇' _9 K" U a+ j! X8 `$ \, T# D. P! M
Victor Wang at Credit Suisse points out that it is almost impossible to distinguish “real” trade financing from “carry trade”, but estimates that the speculative trading could be worth at least $200bn (£120.5bn). TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 }' N& Q# [( w9 |' {
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Hong Kong’s financial supervisor is widely seen as one of the world’s best macro prudential regulators, but Innes-Ker questions whether even the super-savvy Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) can save the territory from the crisis that could be unleashed if China’s credit bubble were to burst in an uncontrollable fashion.
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' f: W6 G- B9 v$ Y( Ewww2.tvboxnow.com“The biggest risk is that you’ve got a financial sector that is several times the size of the economy and you have to question whether the authority’s ability to step in is relatively constrained,”he says. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。8 U) I+ t5 b7 N4 W+ M3 K
7 J, D5 k/ a: c' XOthers are more sanguine about the risks.
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6 Y! E1 L& p( q- R7 s1 Lwww2.tvboxnow.com“The Chinese economy is so controlled they will be able to manage any issues. The idea that the authorities don’t see these problems is ridiculous. If something is happening it is because they tolerate it,” says one Hong-Kong based banker.
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發表於 2014-4-7 07:40 AM
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