0 \* X# x& A4 m& o, D' ^TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。歐洲目前的政治情勢頗為不妙，俄羅斯一方扼住對歐的煤氣供應，一方在邊境陳兵演習，令不能再完全依賴氣力已衰的「老大哥」美國的歐洲，進退失據，看來只有眼睜睜看着俄羅斯吞併克里米亞，而仍不得不設法與她「和平共處」；如果形勢朝此方向發展，除了美國灰頭土臉，對相關國家包括中國的經濟，都有利無害。俄國和歐洲諸國固不待言，中歐貿易額近年突飛猛進，歐盟諸國平安無事，等於其與中國的外貿如常進行；若生意外，中歐貿易難免大挫，這對經濟正在「下行」的中國，斷非好消息。TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。) L" m. j% \! z0 i2 O L& _0 O
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本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-3-19 10:22 AM 編輯 5 D$ i# ?7 O: Y3 X, \- X+ J1 {! y
" C' [ O8 f; T0 ], r8 kwww2.tvboxnow.comBobo Lo: Crimea’s Sudeten Crisis4 }" w( S5 S1 T) n) m
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TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。! i J- r7 M2 r. M * ]/ D" N9 q0 S% i/ c5 L t5 A
- p# s/ c+ r6 b- I+ X% Y: dLONDON – With Crimea voting for secession,the upheaval in Ukraine is fueling an increasingly charged atmosphere between Russia and the tandem of the United States and the European Union. Are American and European leaders being cast in a Russian remake of the 1938 Sudeten crisis?TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。5 K, o& O# |! i) w
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Immediately after Nazi Germany’s annexation of Austria, Adolf Hitler turned his attention to the ethnic Germans living in Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland. First, he demanded the Sudetenland’s cession to Germany, gaining relatively easy agreement from British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and his French counterpart Édouard Daladier.' D: V6 p j/ W: x9 n6 Q3 K- \, I
2 \# b* e0 s: J9 ^( {2 j6 K0 P' K" utvb now,tvbnow,bttvbHitler then immediately raised his demands to include German military occupation of the area. Deeming the issue “a quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing,” and thus not worth defying Hitler over, Chamberlain and Daladier accepted the occupation by signing the Munich Agreement. In doing so, they strengthened Germany considerably and emboldened Hitler – with catastrophic consequences.公仔箱論壇7 _7 `7 A& I7 r# K: m l# |
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To be sure, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not Hitler, Russia is not Nazi Germany (or the Soviet Union, for that matter), and the world does not face the same apocalyptic scenario that unfolded in 1939. Nonetheless, there are some important parallels between the Sudeten and Crimean crises. 5 {% ]) O9 J! ]" X. D公仔箱論壇 * j- W- W. G, w* W; bThe most obvious is the presence of an expatriate majority in the occupied area. Russians comprise nearly 60% of Crimea’s two million inhabitants, and many are more closely connected to their “mother” country than to Ukraine. Likewise,the three million Sudeten Germans felt much greater loyalty to Germany than to Czechoslovakia, and an overwhelming majority embraced their incorporation into the Third Reich. ( U6 p* w; ^7 G" j8 ~* c/ HTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。7 P) |8 @) R5 f/ L; S. ^
Indeed, Putin’s pretext for occupation and annexation – to protect the local population – is the same as Hitler’s. Until recently, Putin showed little interest in Crimean affairs, beyond renewing the lease on the Black Sea Fleet’s base in Sevastopol. But, since the Ukrainian revolution, the local Russian population’s alleged vulnerability to “fascists”has become an emblematic issue – and an excuse for Russian military intervention. Hitler employed a similar pretext in demanding the Sudetenland’s transfer from Czechoslovakia. ) u) z `! X" d- Z# `TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。 1 q: H5 }* i! n/ b4 _" W5 r" U公仔箱論壇Putin has something else in common with Hitler: the view that the country he is occupying is somehow “unnatural.”Although Putin has not formally challenged Ukraine’s independence, he has never hidden his view that it is not a “real country,” referring to it as part of the“Russian world.” Similarly, for Hitler, Czechoslovakia was an unnatural conglomeration of disparate nations and regions. 7 d' g9 \( ? s0 ^+ G+ w% h, X
Hitler sought to destroy Czechoslovakia. Six months after hiving off the Sudetenland, he abrogated the Munich Agreement by occupying all of Bohemia and Moravia and turning the Czech lands into a German protectorate, while installing a puppet regime in a nominally independent Slovakia. If Putin has similar designs, he would begin with Crimea’s annexation– now seemingly a done deal – followed by a direct military presence in eastern Ukraine (where Russian troops are massing at the border), and possibly some kind of partition in the longer term.2 v! P( N) O4 |
. v6 g% R3 e# J3 E8 MOf course, like Hitler, Putin is not concerned only – or even especially – with the occupied area. Instead, he is seeking to project power farther afield. Putin has long used national resurgence – in particular, the idea of Russia as an independent global actor with its own “world” – to legitimize his rule. According to this vision,Ukraine must be strategically aligned with Russia, and its sovereignty must be limited. , C; x) S, \# I/ b, ~ wTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。公仔箱論壇4 q. F1 m2 z( p1 F4 W+ v8 K
For his part, Hitler considered an independent, democratic Czechoslovakia to be a security threat, while eyeing its considerable industrial assets. But the Sudetenland’s annexation was, first and foremost, aimed at helping to restore Germany’s “great power” status.公仔箱論壇( h0 i" z- V% ]" Q, a t% l: E+ \
6 ]+ {: p' ]% O% A, I9 o: K/ ]2 WThere are also striking similarities between Western leaders’ responses to the two crises – namely, their reluctance to take decisive action. Indeed, they seem unwilling to back up their warnings of“costs” and “consequences” with meaningful measures like asset freezes, trade sanctions, and travel restrictions – reinforcing Putin’s belief that they will continue to choose their relationships with Russia over protecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This timidity recalls British and French policy in 1938,when the Sudetenland – and later Czechoslovakia – was sacrificed for a short-lived “peace in our time.”* i: @6 d* N `( h* U7 W
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What lessons can be drawn from the comparison between the Crimean and Sudeten crises? First, any dialogue with Putin will be fruitless, unless Western leaders take a decisive approach that is shaped by concrete objectives, not bogus “strategic partnerships.” Conversely,name-calling – like US President Barack Obama’s accusation that Russia is “on the wrong side of history” – is pointless. ' B, H X2 l" ] R% V' Z, U% \www2.tvboxnow.comwww2.tvboxnow.com+ j3 a$ Z3 U# S& ^% u( O
The West should stop reacting to Putin with“shock and awe” – shock that he can act with such seeming impunity, and awe at his perceived tactical brilliance. Europe and the US have vastly greater influence and resources than Russia, with its atrophied political system and exhausted economic model. What they lack is the willingness to accept the economic and political costs of defending the values that they claim to uphold.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb7 ?5 Q k% k( p+ T9 J
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Finally, Western leaders must recognize that appeasement cannot ensure peace and stability in Europe – not even under the fig leaf of “engagement.” When dealing with a leader whose credo is defined by the notion that “the weak get beaten,” Western governments must demonstrate their resolve, without sacrificing flexibility. Only on this basis can the crisis in Ukraine be addressed without fundamentally compromising transatlantic security.! I9 M3 K' y$ `' ]1 O: r
2 t& e J8 S0 P) A' I/ qwww2.tvboxnow.comBobo Lo is a specialist in Russian foreign policy at Chatham House 9 y% r* u2 \/ s2 ?www2.tvboxnow.com公仔箱論壇7 V! S! n& L8 `
7 s3 z/ S2 L$ j. G1 r# n x; q. q3 wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvbHitler and Chamberlain: The Munich Crisis 1938 5 z) e% Z* N' L$ k ^$ wtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb. H( o) p+ J' k! Z6 w$ \
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本帖最後由 felicity2010 於 2014-3-19 10:40 AM 編輯 " P$ M- O% B; e7 b# Q6 W1 e公仔箱論壇tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb" n/ V; y, e. r+ m' _+ o$ d
The Economist explainstvb now,tvbnow,bttvb+ J& L3 s* P% i/ N! k
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What the original Crimean war was all about 5 Z3 N# J) O S公仔箱論壇 9 F% N3 d, k4 @) e2 B4 f7 `www2.tvboxnow.com 1 ~; B$ p6 a4 _( h" V. U6 wwww2.tvboxnow.com $ b. |% y( U5 a' C+ S+ BON MARCH 16th Crimeans voted in a deeply flawed referendum to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. The crisis on the peninsula has pitted Russia against America and the EU, in the worst diplomatic spat in Europe since the cold war. But it is not the first time that Crimea, on the edge of the Black Sea, has been contested by Russia and the West. On March28th 1854—160 years ago this month—Britain, the superpower of the day,declared war on Russia. The resulting conflict was mainly fought in Crimea as British forces and their allies laid siege to the main Russian naval base in the Black Sea at Sebastopol. What was the original Crimean war all about? 9 b# h( X. Q; F5 U, _! Y; c公仔箱論壇 ( M9 u& L+ u" w$ [& y( W8 fTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。It began against a backdrop of Russian expansionism as the Ottoman Empire declined. The spark was a religious dispute over who should be the guardian of the Ottoman Empire’s Christian minority,especially in the Holy Land: Orthodox Russia or Catholic France. Napoleon III sent his best ship, Charlemagne, to the Black Sea to defend France’s claim. That, together with aggressive diplomatic and financial inducements, sharpened the minds of Ottoman leaders, who declared in favour of France.Russia responded by invading the Ottoman-controlled territories of Moldavia and Wallachia (roughly, parts of modern day Moldova and Romania) and sinking the Ottoman fleet at the Battle of Sinope in 1853. That inflamed public opinion in Britain and France, which feared that Russian domination in the Black Sea region would threaten their trade routes to India via Egypt and the eastern Mediterranean. After some diplomatic dithering, which misled Russia into believing that it could continue its aggression against the Ottomans without consequences, Britain and France declared war in March 1854. The Kingdom of Sardinia-Piedmont (which later became Italy) joined in the war against Russia the next year.公仔箱論壇# K- `2 _' e. f" j4 L
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Although Britain and its allies eventually won the war in 1856, the conflict was disastrously planned and poorly executed.Invasion fleets from Britain and France set off ill-prepared; military planning was so bad that their commanders had not yet decided which part of the Black Sea they were heading for. When they landed in Crimea, military disasters followed, including the famous charge of the light brigade, in which vulnerable British cavalry attacked Russian artillery head-on during the Battle of Balaclava. Support services such as care for the wounded were disorganised. Four times as many British soldiers died of disease during the conflict as in combat. In the end, it took a year-long siege to take the naval base at Sebastopol.www2.tvboxnow.com; v2 t6 a4 i0 z
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Historians blame the mistakes that led to the war on a lack of strategic planning, in diplomatic or military terms, on the part of Britain and France. Similar accusations have been levied at the cautious steps taken so far by America and the EU. But although some commentators have attempted to draw comparisons between that conflict and the current crisis in the Crimea, this time it does not yet look as if things are going the same way. Modern America and 19th-century Britain, though the dominant superpowers of their days, are worlds apart in terms of diplomatic strategy. But few, even in the 1850s, would have thought Russia and the West would still be contesting the same small peninsula of land a century and a half later. If history does not repeat itself, it has a strange way of rhyming. % u/ m- f' b" i* H% K5 k7 KTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。1 ^7 q' M* w3 ~0 I5 Z% K8 I) O) p
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We want to be free from a dictatorship. We want to be free from the politicians who work only for themselves, who are ready to shoot, to beat, to injure people, just for saving their money, just for saving their houses, just to saving their power.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1 ? O. J2 y4 Q) T9 Q
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We are civilized people, but our government are barbarians. That's not a soviet union. We want our courts not to be corrupted. We want to be free. ; E" M8 j$ d" r3 D0 a$ | $ g$ c" q+ _; O# I" _% ]
I am a Ukrainian, the native of Kiev. And now I am on Maidan, on the central part of my city. I want you to know why thousands of people all over my country are on the streets. There is only one reason: We want to be free from a dictatorship. We want to be free from the politicians who work only for themselves, who are ready to shoot, to beat, to injure people, just for saving their money, just for saving their houses, just to saving their power. % K( s; L# G& o0 _8 `- N/ t - k: q5 u+ U2 N7 M s9 e* w5 H. d
I want these people who are here, who have dignity, who are brave, I want them to lead a normal life. We are civilized people, but our government are barbarians. That's not a soviet union. We want our courts not to be corrupted. We want to be free. + r# E6 M7 [, ] h4 ?. k4 a( J2 U' P# q / T2 R. [) i) J7 k8 {: ^) ~I know that maybe tomorrow we'll have no phone, no internet connection, and we will be alone here. And maybe police men will murder us, one after another, when it will be dark here.公仔箱論壇3 w S- t/ m8 w3 K$ |; m
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That's why I ask you now to help us. We have this freedom inside our hearts. We have this freedom in our minds. And now I ask you to build this freedom in our country. www2.tvboxnow.com* o/ |$ k! C$ i5 Z6 ?! n5 c3 y1 D
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You can help us only by telling this story to your friends, only by sharing this video. Please share, share it. Speak to your friends, speak to your family, speak to your government, and show that you support us. 8 @9 ~3 r1 M. u+ O公仔箱論壇
The Economist : Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the return of history . h2 y' W9 q0 B+ h0 @; H: ztvb now,tvbnow,bttvb公仔箱論壇: z; H' o* c4 J1 M& K0 H$ W
: O& R; i- f: c% _$ \# Z0 ~tvb now,tvbnow,bttvbON MARCH 18th Russia annexed Crimea, marking the first time the country expanded its borders since the cold war. Yet it has form. The 20th century was a period of ever-changing national boundaries,affiliations and spheres of influence. At the start of the second world war,the then Soviet Union’s territory extended into modern-day Belarus and Ukraine,and included Crimea. By war’s end, the entirety of both countries became a part of the USSR, as well as the Baltic states. During the cold war, the iron curtain descended over Eastern Europe—and stayed there until the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991. The map of Europe remained unchanged in terms of Russian territory until this month. A quarter-century after the fall of the Berlin Wall, the hungry Russian bear is back. The following five maps show the troubled history of Russia and its neighbours.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! U- W1 H* }/ D( p. H/ x
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; }4 |$ a2 w; Y6 D2 r1938: In a period of balance-of-power politics, the Soviet Union’s territory does not extend far westward into Europe. TVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。. `5 k+ P* j* E, y $ s9 Y# P9 S1 g# k9 T: ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb1945: Following the second world war, the Soviet Union extended its control into modern day Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and four Baltic states. tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb I; M. d. X/ r$ ^' G; Q + q- h! Q# l& r0 L) Z1949-89: During the cold war, the USSR’s sphere of influence extended over Eastern Europe, via the Warsaw Pact countries and a divided Germany.www2.tvboxnow.com7 q. o$ h1 Z! _/ C6 |# J/ I3 z 9 n7 m3 b! ~2 [+ U 1991: After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 led to the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia’s territory was smaller than it was before the second world war. + @9 ?/ f, j& Y) Y/ n公仔箱論壇 8 D9 u* X4 X1 H# q( `2014: Russia annexes the Ukrainian region of Crimea, after Russian troops invade and the area votes to secede from Ukraine. The vote and annexation is condemned internationally.tvb now,tvbnow,bttvb! w) w; e% D. z+ ?6 H3 D2 n3 S$ f
L& t- j2 W5 o5 O4 ~' Ztvb now,tvbnow,bttvbAdam Michnik: The Russian Godfather # D5 Y& f8 f# {4 |7 g. Mwww2.tvboxnow.com2 v8 G- N0 ~' {; k/ F$ [# s
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WARSAW – Russian President Vladimir Putin is behaving like a Mafia boss. In invading, occupying, and finally annexing Crimea, he pointed Russia’s guns at Ukraine and said: your territorial sovereignty or your life. So far, extortion has worked – and Putin knows it.9 C$ r2 U$ x7 C
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Indeed, in his speech announcing the annexation of Crimea, Putin spoke his mind: his regime fears no punishment and will do whatever it pleases. Crimea is just the first step toward realizing his dream of revived Russian greatness.www2.tvboxnow.com: G: m& p( E3 j, ~# u+ U
h0 R5 R2 @* [ Xwww2.tvboxnow.comHis address in the Kremlin was a tissue of lies and manipulation, though a subtle analysis would be a waste of time. The simple fact is that the president of one of the world’s most powerful countries has embarked on a path of confrontation with the entire international community. His speech smacked of the fevered, paranoid world of Fyodor Dostoyevsky’s Demons, conjuring as it did a delusional alternative universe – a place that does not exist and has never existed. ) F8 U) d3 D7 @4 W- ytvb now,tvbnow,bttvb8 M1 F; q+ ]) B+ O. k, y
What does Kosovo, where the Albanians suffered persecution and ethnic cleansing, have in common with the situation in Crimea, whose people have never been oppressed by Ukrainians? What is the point in displaying open contempt for Ukraine’s government, parliament, and people?Why label Ukrainian authorities “fascist and anti-Semitic”? Crimean Tatars pay no heed to the fairy tales about fascists ruling Ukraine; they can still remember the brutal and murderous mass deportations of their parents and grandparents, ordered by Stalin and carried out by the NKVD.www2.tvboxnow.com$ K# ^3 d0 ~: K9 ~! E
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In Putin’s mind, the whole world has discriminated against Russia for the last three centuries. Russia’s bloody despots – Catherine II, Nicholas I, or Stalin – apparently never discriminated against anyone. 3 m9 A. W1 k$ K* j! [ 2 q6 p2 p& s1 y) P" g+ k( ?www2.tvboxnow.comPutin also warns that “you and we – the Russians and the Ukrainians – could lose Crimea completely.” Yet he fails to specify who – perhaps Poles and Lithuanians again? – are setting their sights on Sevastopol. 2 c9 U& x9 e1 n, D4 R6 V- M2 rTVBNOW 含有熱門話題，最新最快電視，軟體，遊戲，電影，動漫及日常生活及興趣交流等資訊。, R5 r6 F" l$ L2 A- m( r8 |( H1 f
Russia could not, according to Putin, leave the people of Crimea “alone in their predicament.” These words prompt a sad smile; Leonid Brezhnev used precisely the same phrase in August 1968 to justify the Red Army’s intervention in Czechoslovakia to help beleaguered Communist hardliners there crush the Prague Spring reform movement.# r4 C$ `, r4 @/ [
0 x3 |& x' ~1 A! _, F: {: Q公仔箱論壇“We want Ukraine to be a strong, sovereign, and independent country,” says Putin.Stalin said the same thing about Poland in 1945. Brave Russian democrats who have not yet been silenced have already remarked on the similarity between Putin’s appeal to ethnic solidarity in annexing Crimea and Hitler’s stance during the Anschluss and the Sudeten crisis in 1938.' c* {( R/ e" s9 t1 r/ E7 d7 K6 {
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This is the real end of history – the history of dreams about a world governed by democratic values and the market economy.Unless the democratic world understands that now is not the time for faith in diplomatic compromise, and that it must respond strongly enough to stop Putin’s imperial designs, events could follow a logic that is too dreadful to contemplate.It takes force to stop a thug, not sharp words or cosmetic sanctions. m( ^" k6 O0 T! {: _ l
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I commend and take pride in Poland’s prudent and determined policy and the attitude of its public, which do us great credit.But we must recognize that the best quarter-century in the last 400 years of Polish history is about to end before our very eyes. A time of tectonic shifts has begun. We must appreciate what we have managed to achieve – and learn to protect it.% H4 K" U# V" C. u
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Mafia bosses often meet an unhappy fate, and I do not think that Putin will fare much better in the end. Unfortunately, many people are likely to be hurt in the meantime, not least those who now support him.www2.tvboxnow.com" e3 C8 U9 X8 }9 e" [; D% U& b
8 s" A3 y% {4 P% O8 | Adam Michnik was one of the leaders of Solidarity and the founding editor of Gazeta Wyborcza. 1 I. K5 e5 y3 jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb ' W( [! G1 `( v/ t$ ]) M( }8 jtvb now,tvbnow,bttvb
發表於 2014-3-19 09:47 AM
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